OpenLB
Open Library of Bioscience
Advanced Search
Australasian journal on ageing
Dec, 2022;41 (4): e320-e327.

Demographic drivers of the growth of the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people living with dementia, 2016-2051.

Jeromey Temple, Tom Wilson, Kylie Radford, Dina LoGiudice, Ariane Utomo, Kaarin J Anstey, Sandra Eades
Author Information
  1. Jeromey Temple: Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. ORCID
  2. Tom Wilson: Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. ORCID
  3. Kylie Radford: Neuroscience Research Australia, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. ORCID
  4. Dina LoGiudice: Faculty of Medicine, Dentistry and Health Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  5. Ariane Utomo: School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. ORCID
  6. Kaarin J Anstey: Neuroscience Research Australia, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
  7. Sandra Eades: Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
PMID: 35993283 DOI: 10.1111/ajag.13116

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To examine the demographic drivers that contribute to the future growth in the population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples living with dementia in Australia.
METHODS: Design: Multistate, Indigenous status, cohort component, population projection model.
SETTING: National-level, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population.
DATA: Data prepared by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on births, deaths, migration and identification change. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare estimates of dementia prevalence alongside estimates from several studies.
MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of older people living with dementia alongside a decomposition of demographic drivers of growth.
RESULTS: By 2051, the relative growth in the number of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples aged 50+ with dementia ranges from 4½ to 5½ times (under three prevalence scenarios) its 2016 estimate. Cohort flow (the gradual movement of younger cohorts into the 50+ age group, and the depletion of older cohorts from death, over time) is a key driver of the growth in the number of older people living with dementia.
CONCLUSIONS: High growth in the number of people living with dementia poses implications for culturally appropriate care, health-care access and support for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander families, carers and their communities.

Keywords

dementia health services-Indigenous population forecast

References

J Alzheimers Dis. 2019;70(s1):S75-S85 [PMID: 30507573]
Med J Aust. 2014 May 5;200(8):465-9 [PMID: 24794609]
Australas J Ageing. 2021 Jun;40(2):e125-e132 [PMID: 33169520]
J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2005 Dec;76 Suppl 5:v2-7 [PMID: 16291918]
Australas J Ageing. 2021 Jun;40(2):145-153 [PMID: 33155390]
Neurology. 2008 Nov 4;71(19):1470-3 [PMID: 18799785]
Australas J Ageing. 2016 Jun;35(2):90-7 [PMID: 27324863]
Lancet. 2020 Aug 8;396(10248):413-446 [PMID: 32738937]
Australas J Ageing. 2019 Mar;38(1):39-46 [PMID: 30632245]
Med J Aust. 2018 Jun 2;209(1):19-23 [PMID: 29954311]
J Alzheimers Dis. 2019;70(s1):S165-S186 [PMID: 31306123]
Rural Remote Health. 2022 May;22(2):6850 [PMID: 35644220]
Can J Aging. 2020 Jun;39(2):178-189 [PMID: 31230607]
Australas J Ageing. 2022 Dec;41(4):e320-e327 [PMID: 35993283]
Aust Health Rev. 2012 Feb;36(1):68-74 [PMID: 22513023]
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2011 Aug;35(4):331-6 [PMID: 21806727]
Rural Remote Health. 2012;12:2078 [PMID: 23259852]
Med J Aust. 2018 Jun 2;209(1):16-17 [PMID: 29954309]
J Appl Gerontol. 2022 Jan;41(1):262-273 [PMID: 33660541]
Aust N Z J Public Health. 2020 Aug;44(4):271-278 [PMID: 32510736]
Prim Health Care Res Dev. 2021 Oct 07;22:e50 [PMID: 34615570]
BMC Health Serv Res. 2021 Jul 16;21(1):699 [PMID: 34271930]
BMC Health Serv Res. 2020 Mar 12;20(1):208 [PMID: 32164678]
Alzheimers Dement. 2020 Oct;16(10):1448-1456 [PMID: 32573915]
Gerontologist. 2021 Jul 13;61(5):e163-e172 [PMID: 32191314]

Grants

  1. /Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Population Ageing Research

MeSH Term

Humans
Aged
Australia
Health Services Accessibility
Population Groups
Dementia
Health Services, Indigenous
Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples
Journal Article

Word Cloud

Similar Articles

Cited By