- M Mazharul Islam: Department of Statistics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.
This study examines the extent of the interrelationship between future fertility intention and subsequent fertility behaviour in rural Bangladesh using longitudinal data. It confirms that fertility intention is an important predictor of subsequent fertility behaviour for rural Bangladeshi women. Women wanting no more children are over three times less likely to have a child during a 5-year follow-up than those wanting more children. A multivariate model using logistic regression shows that fertility intention is a useful indicator for fertility behaviour, when background and life-cycle variables are controlled. The different patterns of fertility intentions by socioeconomic and demographic subgroups suggest that different programme strategies should be designed for specific target groups.