Transmission dynamics of West Nile virus in mosquitoes and corvids and non-corvids.

Ahmed Abdelrazec, Suzanne Lenhart, Huaiping Zhu
Author Information
  1. Ahmed Abdelrazec: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.

Abstract

There are more than 300 avian species that can transmit West Nile virus (WNv). In general, the corvid and non-corvid families of birds have different responses to the virus, with corvids suffering a higher disease-induced mortality rate. By taking both corvids and non-corvids as the primary reservoir hosts and mosquitoes as vectors; we formulate and study a system of ordinary differential equations to model a single season of the transmission dynamics of WNv in the mosquito-bird cycle. We calculate the basic reproduction number and analyze the existence and stability of the equilibria. The existence of a backward bifurcation gives a further sub-threshold condition beyond the basic reproduction number for the spread of the virus. We also discuss the role of corvids and non-corvids in spreading the virus. We conclude that knowledge of the relative abundance of corvid bird species and other mammals assist us in accurate estimation of the epidemic of WNv.

References

  1. Avian Dis. 2000 Oct-Dec;44(4):932-7 [PMID: 11195649]
  2. Bull Math Biol. 2010 May;72(4):1006-28 [PMID: 20054714]
  3. Math Biosci Eng. 2004 Sep;1(2):361-404 [PMID: 20369977]
  4. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2009 Feb;80(2):268-78 [PMID: 19190226]
  5. Ann Intern Med. 2002 Aug 6;137(3):173-9 [PMID: 12160365]
  6. Bull Math Biol. 2006 Jan;68(1):3-23 [PMID: 16794919]
  7. Bull Math Biol. 2005 Sep;67(5):1107-33 [PMID: 15998497]
  8. Bull Math Biol. 2006 Apr;68(3):491-509 [PMID: 16794942]
  9. Proc Biol Sci. 2004 Mar 7;271(1538):501-7 [PMID: 15129960]
  10. Math Biosci. 2002 Nov-Dec;180:29-48 [PMID: 12387915]
  11. Bull Math Biol. 2005 Nov;67(6):1157-72 [PMID: 16125762]
  12. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 1999 Oct 8;48(39):890-2 [PMID: 10550041]
  13. Math Biosci. 2010 Sep;227(1):20-8 [PMID: 20576516]
  14. Bull Math Biol. 2009 Apr;71(3):627-47 [PMID: 19101771]
  15. Clin Med Res. 2003 Jan;1(1):5-12 [PMID: 15931279]
  16. Emerg Infect Dis. 2003 Mar;9(3):311-22 [PMID: 12643825]

MeSH Term

Animals
Basic Reproduction Number
Computer Simulation
Crows
Culicidae
Insect Vectors
Models, Theoretical
West Nile Fever
West Nile virus

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0viruscorvidsWNvnon-corvidsspeciesWestNilecorvidmosquitoesdynamicsbasicreproductionnumberexistence300aviancantransmitgeneralnon-corvidfamiliesbirdsdifferentresponsessufferinghigherdisease-inducedmortalityratetakingprimaryreservoirhostsvectorsformulatestudysystemordinarydifferentialequationsmodelsingleseasontransmissionmosquito-birdcyclecalculateanalyzestabilityequilibriabackwardbifurcationgivessub-thresholdconditionbeyondspreadalsodiscussrolespreadingconcludeknowledgerelativeabundancebirdmammalsassistusaccurateestimationepidemicTransmission

Similar Articles

Cited By