Data-Driven Method to Estimate Nonlinear Chemical Equivalence.

Michael Mayo, Zachary A Collier, Corey Winton, Mark A Chappell
Author Information
  1. Michael Mayo: Environmental Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 39183, United States of America.
  2. Zachary A Collier: Environmental Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 39183, United States of America.
  3. Corey Winton: Information Technology Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 39183, United States of America.
  4. Mark A Chappell: Environmental Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, 39183, United States of America.

Abstract

There is great need to express the impacts of chemicals found in the environment in terms of effects from alternative chemicals of interest. Methods currently employed in fields such as life-cycle assessment, risk assessment, mixtures toxicology, and pharmacology rely mostly on heuristic arguments to justify the use of linear relationships in the construction of "equivalency factors," which aim to model these concentration-concentration correlations. However, the use of linear models, even at low concentrations, oversimplifies the nonlinear nature of the concentration-response curve, therefore introducing error into calculations involving these factors. We address this problem by reporting a method to determine a concentration-concentration relationship between two chemicals based on the full extent of experimentally derived concentration-response curves. Although this method can be easily generalized, we develop and illustrate it from the perspective of toxicology, in which we provide equations relating the sigmoid and non-monotone, or "biphasic," responses typical of the field. The resulting concentration-concentration relationships are manifestly nonlinear for nearly any chemical level, even at the very low concentrations common to environmental measurements. We demonstrate the method using real-world examples of toxicological data which may exhibit sigmoid and biphasic mortality curves. Finally, we use our models to calculate equivalency factors, and show that traditional results are recovered only when the concentration-response curves are "parallel," which has been noted before, but we make formal here by providing mathematical conditions on the validity of this approach.

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MeSH Term

Algorithms
Animals
Dose-Response Relationship, Drug
Ecosystem
Environmental Health
Environmental Pollutants
Hazardous Substances
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment
Xenobiotics

Chemicals

Environmental Pollutants
Hazardous Substances
Xenobiotics

Word Cloud

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