The Impacts of Heatwaves on Mortality Differ with Different Study Periods: A Multi-City Time Series Investigation.

Xiao Yu Wang, Yuming Guo, Gerry FitzGerald, Peter Aitken, Vivienne Tippett, Dong Chen, Xiaoming Wang, Shilu Tong
Author Information
  1. Xiao Yu Wang: School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  2. Yuming Guo: School of Population Health, Faculty of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  3. Gerry FitzGerald: School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  4. Peter Aitken: School of Public Health, Tropical Medicine and Rehabilitation Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
  5. Vivienne Tippett: School of Clinical Sciences, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
  6. Dong Chen: Ecosystem Sciences, CSIRO, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  7. Xiaoming Wang: Climate Adaptation and Sustainable Development, CSIRO, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  8. Shilu Tong: School of Public Health and Social Work, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Different locations and study periods were used in the assessment of the relationships between heatwaves and mortality. However, little is known about the comparability and consistency of the previous effect estimates in the literature. This study assessed the heatwave-mortality relationship using different study periods in the three largest Australian cities (Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney).
METHODS: Daily data on climatic variables and mortality for the three cities were obtained from relevant government agencies between 1988 and 2011. A consistent definition of heatwaves was used for these cities. Poisson generalised additive model was fitted to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality.
RESULTS: Non-accidental and circulatory mortality significantly increased during heatwaves across the three cities even with different heatwave definitions and study periods. Using the summer data resulted in the largest increase in effect estimates compared to those using the warm season or the whole year data.
CONCLUSION: The findings may have implications for developing standard approaches to evaluating the heatwave-mortality relationship and advancing heat health warning systems. It also provides an impetus to methodological advance for assessing climate change-related health consequences.

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MeSH Term

Australia
Cities
Climate Change
Emergency Service, Hospital
Extreme Heat
Hospitalization
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Mortality
Seasons
Survival Rate
Time Factors

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0studyheatwavesmortalitycitiesperiodsthreedataDifferentusedeffectestimatesheatwave-mortalityrelationshipusingdifferentlargesthealthBACKGROUND:locationsassessmentrelationshipsHoweverlittleknowncomparabilityconsistencypreviousliteratureassessedAustralianBrisbaneMelbourneSydneyMETHODS:Dailyclimaticvariablesobtainedrelevantgovernmentagencies19882011consistentdefinitionPoissongeneralisedadditivemodelfittedassessimpactRESULTS:Non-accidentalcirculatorysignificantlyincreasedacrossevenheatwavedefinitionsUsingsummerresultedincreasecomparedwarmseasonwholeyearCONCLUSION:findingsmayimplicationsdevelopingstandardapproachesevaluatingadvancingheatwarningsystemsalsoprovidesimpetusmethodologicaladvanceassessingclimatechange-relatedconsequencesImpactsHeatwavesMortalityDifferStudyPeriods:Multi-CityTimeSeriesInvestigation

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