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Demography
Oct, 2015;52 (5): 1627-50.

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration.

Jonathan J Azose, Adrian E Raftery
Author Information
  1. Jonathan J Azose: Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, 98195-4322, Seattle, WA, USA. jonazose@u.washington.edu.
  2. Adrian E Raftery: Department of Statistics, University of Washington, Box 354322, 98195-4322, Seattle, WA, USA. raftery@u.washington.edu.
PMID: 26358699 DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0415-0

Abstract

We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net migration. We evaluate our model using out-of-sample validation and compare point projections to the projected migration rates from a persistence model similar to the method used in the United Nations' World Population Prospects, and also to a state-of-the-art gravity model.

Keywords

Autoregressive model Bayesian hierarchical model Markov chain Monte Carlo World population prospects

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Grants

  1. R01 HD054511/NICHD NIH HHS
  2. R01 HD070936/NICHD NIH HHS

MeSH Term

Age Distribution
Bayes Theorem
Emigration and Immigration
Humans
Markov Chains
Monte Carlo Method
Population Dynamics
Sex Distribution
Time Factors
United Nations
Journal Article Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Article has an altmetric score of 4

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