[Application of Time-Series Analysis to the Projection of School Enrollments by Cohort].

Herbert L Smith
Author Information
  1. Herbert L Smith: Population Studies Center, Université de Pennsylvanie, Philadelphie, États-Unis.

Abstract

This article shows that we can re-write several demographic models for cohort projections as transpositions of the econometric vector auto-regression (VAR) model. In so doing, we give the method of cohort projection a stochastic framework that extends its applicability. This is demonstrated via an example involving the projection of school enrollments. We emphasize a series of equations that allow us to check the validity of several modeling choices that are otherwise made on the basis of habit alone.

References

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Grants

  1. P2C HD044964/NICHD NIH HHS
  2. R24 HD044964/NICHD NIH HHS

Word Cloud

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