Recent enhancement of central Pacific El Niño variability relative to last eight centuries.

Yu Liu, Kim M Cobb, Huiming Song, Qiang Li, Ching-Yao Li, Takeshi Nakatsuka, Zhisheng An, Weijian Zhou, Qiufang Cai, Jinbao Li, Steven W Leavitt, Changfeng Sun, Ruochen Mei, Chuan-Chou Shen, Ming-Hsun Chan, Junyan Sun, Libin Yan, Ying Lei, Yongyong Ma, Xuxiang Li, Deliang Chen, Hans W Linderholm
Author Information
  1. Yu Liu: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  2. Kim M Cobb: School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 30332, USA.
  3. Huiming Song: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  4. Qiang Li: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  5. Ching-Yao Li: Department of Tourism and Leisure Management, Tung Fang Design Institute, Kaohsiung 82941, Taiwan.
  6. Takeshi Nakatsuka: Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, 457-4 Motoyama, Kamigamo, Kita-ku, Kyoto 603-8047, Japan.
  7. Zhisheng An: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  8. Weijian Zhou: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  9. Qiufang Cai: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  10. Jinbao Li: Department of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road 999077, Hong Kong. ORCID
  11. Steven W Leavitt: The Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA.
  12. Changfeng Sun: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  13. Ruochen Mei: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  14. Chuan-Chou Shen: High-Precision Mass Spectrometry and Environment Change Laboratory (HISPEC), Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan.
  15. Ming-Hsun Chan: Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, National Chiayi University, Chiayi 60004, Taiwan.
  16. Junyan Sun: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  17. Libin Yan: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  18. Ying Lei: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  19. Yongyong Ma: The State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, The Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China.
  20. Xuxiang Li: School of Human Settlements and Civil Engineering, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China.
  21. Deliang Chen: Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, S-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden. ORCID
  22. Hans W Linderholm: Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, S-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden.

Abstract

The far-reaching impacts of central Pacific El Niño events on global climate differ appreciably from those associated with eastern Pacific El Niño events. Central Pacific El Niño events may become more frequent in coming decades as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise, but the instrumental record of central Pacific sea-surface temperatures is too short to detect potential trends. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of NIÑO4 sea-surface temperature, located in the central equatorial Pacific, based on oxygen isotopic time series from Taiwan tree cellulose that span from 1190 AD to 2007 AD. Our reconstruction indicates that relatively warm Niño4 sea-surface temperature values over the late twentieth century are accompanied by higher levels of interannual variability than observed in other intervals of the 818-year-long reconstruction. Our results imply that anthropogenic greenhouse forcing may be driving an increase in central Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability and/or its hydrological impacts, consistent with recent modelling studies.

References

  1. Science. 2013 May 24;340(6135):945-50 [PMID: 23558172]
  2. Can J Psychiatry. 1996 Oct;41(8):498-502 [PMID: 8899234]
  3. Nature. 2013 Oct 24;502(7472):541-5 [PMID: 24121439]
  4. Nature. 2009 Sep 24;461(7263):511-4 [PMID: 19779449]
  5. Nature. 2006 Apr 27;440(7088):1179-82 [PMID: 16641993]
  6. Science. 2009 Jul 3;325(5936):77-80 [PMID: 19574388]
  7. Nature. 2003 Jul 17;424(6946):271-6 [PMID: 12867972]
  8. Nature. 2000 Oct 26;407(6807):989-93 [PMID: 11069175]

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0PacificcentralElNiñoeventssea-surfacereconstructionvariabilityimpactsmaygreenhousetemperatureADfar-reachingglobalclimatedifferappreciablyassociatedeasternCentralbecomefrequentcomingdecadesatmosphericgasconcentrationsriseinstrumentalrecordtemperaturesshortdetectpotentialtrendspresentannuallyresolvedNIÑO4locatedequatorialbasedoxygenisotopictimeseriesTaiwantreecellulosespan11902007indicatesrelativelywarmNiño4valueslatetwentiethcenturyaccompaniedhigherlevelsinterannualobservedintervals818-year-longresultsimplyanthropogenicforcingdrivingincreaseNiño-SouthernOscillationand/orhydrologicalconsistentrecentmodellingstudiesRecentenhancementrelativelasteightcenturies

Similar Articles

Cited By