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Nature communications
02 13, 2018;9 (1): 660.

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts.

Erwan Monier, Sergey Paltsev, Andrei Sokolov, Y-H Henry Chen, Xiang Gao, Qudsia Ejaz, Evan Couzo, C Adam Schlosser, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Charles Fant, Jeffery Scott, David Kicklighter, Jennifer Morris, Henry Jacoby, Ronald Prinn, Martin Haigh
Author Information
  1. Erwan Monier: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA. emonier@mit.edu. ORCID
  2. Sergey Paltsev: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA. paltsev@mit.edu. ORCID
  3. Andrei Sokolov: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  4. Y-H Henry Chen: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  5. Xiang Gao: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  6. Qudsia Ejaz: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  7. Evan Couzo: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  8. C Adam Schlosser: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  9. Stephanie Dutkiewicz: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  10. Charles Fant: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  11. Jeffery Scott: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  12. David Kicklighter: The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, 7 MBL St, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA.
  13. Jennifer Morris: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  14. Henry Jacoby: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  15. Ronald Prinn: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA.
  16. Martin Haigh: Shell International, Shell Centre, York Road, London, SE1 7NA, UK.
PMID: 29440736 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02984-9

Abstract

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

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Journal Article Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Article has an altmetric score of 148

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