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Nature communications
03 01, 2019;10 (1): 1005.

State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes.

Jacob Schewe, Simon N Gosling, Christopher Reyer, Fang Zhao, Philippe Ciais, Joshua Elliott, Louis Francois, Veronika Huber, Heike K Lotze, Sonia I Seneviratne, Michelle T H van Vliet, Robert Vautard, Yoshihide Wada, Lutz Breuer, Matthias Büchner, David A Carozza, Jinfeng Chang, Marta Coll, Delphine Deryng, Allard de Wit, Tyler D Eddy, Christian Folberth, Katja Frieler, Andrew D Friend, Dieter Gerten, Lukas Gudmundsson, Naota Hanasaki, Akihiko Ito, Nikolay Khabarov, Hyungjun Kim, Peter Lawrence, Catherine Morfopoulos, Christoph Müller, Hannes Müller Schmied, René Orth, Sebastian Ostberg, Yadu Pokhrel, Thomas A M Pugh, Gen Sakurai, Yusuke Satoh, Erwin Schmid, Tobias Stacke, Jeroen Steenbeek, Jörg Steinkamp, Qiuhong Tang, Hanqin Tian, Derek P Tittensor, Jan Volkholz, Xuhui Wang, Lila Warszawski
Author Information
  1. Jacob Schewe: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany. schewe@pik-potsdam.de. ORCID
  2. Simon N Gosling: School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, NG7 2RD, UK. ORCID
  3. Christopher Reyer: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  4. Fang Zhao: School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China.
  5. Philippe Ciais: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. ORCID
  6. Joshua Elliott: University of Chicago and ANL Computation Institute, 5735S. Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL, 60637, USA.
  7. Louis Francois: Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique/U.R. SPHERES, Université de Liège, B-4000, LIEGE, Belgium.
  8. Veronika Huber: Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Ctra. de Utrera 1, 41013, Sevilla, Spain.
  9. Heike K Lotze: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada. ORCID
  10. Sonia I Seneviratne: ETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland. ORCID
  11. Michelle T H van Vliet: Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands. ORCID
  12. Robert Vautard: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. ORCID
  13. Yoshihide Wada: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria. ORCID
  14. Lutz Breuer: Institute for Landscape Ecology and Resources Management (ILR), Research Centre for BioSystems, Land Use and Nutrition (iFZ), Justus Liebig University Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 26, 35390, Giessen, Germany. ORCID
  15. Matthias Büchner: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  16. David A Carozza: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 0E8, Canada. ORCID
  17. Jinfeng Chang: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France. ORCID
  18. Marta Coll: Institute of Marine Sciences (ICM - CSIC), Barcelona, E-08003, Spain. ORCID
  19. Delphine Deryng: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Müncheberg, 15374, Germany.
  20. Allard de Wit: Wageningen Environmental Research, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands. ORCID
  21. Tyler D Eddy: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada. ORCID
  22. Christian Folberth: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria. ORCID
  23. Katja Frieler: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  24. Andrew D Friend: Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK.
  25. Dieter Gerten: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany. ORCID
  26. Lukas Gudmundsson: ETH Zurich, Land-Climate Dynamics, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, 8092, Zurich, Switzerland. ORCID
  27. Naota Hanasaki: National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan. ORCID
  28. Akihiko Ito: National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan. ORCID
  29. Nikolay Khabarov: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria. ORCID
  30. Hyungjun Kim: Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 153-8505, Japan. ORCID
  31. Peter Lawrence: Terrestrial Science Section, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA. ORCID
  32. Catherine Morfopoulos: Imperial College of London, Department of Life Science, Silwood Park Campus Buckhurst Rd, Berks, SL5 7PY, UK.
  33. Christoph Müller: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany. ORCID
  34. Hannes Müller Schmied: Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438, Frankfurt am Main, Germany. ORCID
  35. René Orth: Department of Physical Geography, Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, SE-10691, Stockholm, Sweden.
  36. Sebastian Ostberg: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany. ORCID
  37. Yadu Pokhrel: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, MI, 48824, USA. ORCID
  38. Thomas A M Pugh: School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK.
  39. Gen Sakurai: Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 3-1-3 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8604, Japan.
  40. Yusuke Satoh: Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
  41. Erwin Schmid: University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Feistmantelstrasse 4, 1180, Vienna, Austria.
  42. Tobias Stacke: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146, Hamburg, Germany.
  43. Jeroen Steenbeek: Ecopath International Initiative, Bellaterra, 08193, Spain. ORCID
  44. Jörg Steinkamp: Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325, Frankfurt, Germany. ORCID
  45. Qiuhong Tang: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100101, Beijing, China. ORCID
  46. Hanqin Tian: School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, 602 Duncan Drive, Auburn, AL, 36849, USA. ORCID
  47. Derek P Tittensor: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.
  48. Jan Volkholz: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
  49. Xuhui Wang: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
  50. Lila Warszawski: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473, Potsdam, Germany.
PMID: 30824763 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

Abstract

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

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