Nanyan Deng: National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China. ORCID
Patricio Grassini: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, PO. Box. 830915, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0915, USA. ORCID
Haishun Yang: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, PO. Box. 830915, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0915, USA.
Jianliang Huang: National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China. ORCID
Kenneth G Cassman: Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, PO. Box. 830915, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0915, USA. ORCID
Shaobing Peng: National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, MARA Key Laboratory of Crop Ecophysiology and Farming System in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, 430070, Hubei, China. speng@mail.hzau.edu.cn. ORCID
China produces 28% of global rice supply and is currently self-sufficient despite a massive rural-to-urban demographic transition that drives intense competition for land and water resources. At issue is whether it will remain self-sufficient, which depends on the potential to raise yields on existing rice land. Here we report a detailed spatial analysis of rice production potential in China and evaluate scenarios to 2030. We find that China is likely to remain self-sufficient in rice assuming current yield and consumption trajectories and no reduction in production area. A focus on increasing yields of double-rice systems on general, and in three single-rice provinces where yield gaps are relatively large, would provide greatest return on investments in research and development to remain self-sufficient. Discrepancies between results from our detailed bottom-up yield-gap analysis and those derived following a top-down methodology show that the two approaches would result in very different research and development priorities.
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