Correlation between Google Trends on dengue fever and national surveillance report in Indonesia.

Atina Husnayain, Anis Fuad, Lutfan Lazuardi
Author Information
  1. Atina Husnayain: a E-Health Division, Center for Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing , Universitas Gadjah Mada , Yogyakarta , Indonesia. ORCID
  2. Anis Fuad: b Department of Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Population Health, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing , Universitas Gadjah Mada , Yogyakarta , Indonesia. ORCID
  3. Lutfan Lazuardi: c Department of Health Policy Management, Faculty of Medicine, Public Health and Nursing , Universitas Gadjah Mada , Yogyakarta , Indonesia. ORCID

Abstract

: Digital traces are rapidly used for health monitoring purposes in recent years. This approach is growing as the consequence of increased use of mobile phone, Internet, and machine learning. Many studies reported the use of Google Trends data as a potential data source to assist traditional surveillance systems. The rise of Internet penetration (54.7%) and the huge utilization of Google (98%) indicate the potential use of Google Trends in Indonesia. No study was performed to measure the correlation between country wide official dengue reports and Google Trends data in Indonesia. : This study aims to measure the correlation between Google Trends data on dengue fever and the Indonesian national surveillance report. : This research was a quantitative study using time series data (2012-2016). Two sets of data were analyzed using Moving Average analysis in Microsoft Excel. Pearson and Time lag correlations were also used to measure the correlation between those data. : Moving Average analysis showed that Google Trends data have a linear time series pattern with official dengue report. Pearson correlation indicated high correlation for three defined search terms with R-value range from 0.921 to 0.937 ( ��� 0.05, overall period) which showed increasing trend in epidemic periods (2015-2016). Time lag correlation also indicated that Google Trends data can potentially be used for an early warning system and novel tool to monitor public reaction before the increase of dengue cases and during the outbreak. : Google Trends data have a linear time series pattern and statistically correlated with annual official dengue reports. Identification of information-seeking behavior is needed to support the use of Google Trends for disease surveillance in Indonesia.

Keywords

References

  1. Lancet Infect Dis. 2014 Feb;14(2):160-8 [PMID: 24290841]
  2. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2011 May;5(5):e1206 [PMID: 21647308]
  3. J Med Internet Res. 2014 May 13;16(5):e128 [PMID: 24824164]
  4. PLoS One. 2013 Dec 05;8(12):e81422 [PMID: 24339927]
  5. PLoS One. 2017 Jan 6;12(1):e0165085 [PMID: 28060809]
  6. J Epidemiol Glob Health. 2017 Sep;7(3):185-189 [PMID: 28756828]
  7. Int J Med Inform. 2017 Aug;104:26-30 [PMID: 28599813]
  8. BMJ. 2009 Jun 29;338:b2393 [PMID: 19564179]
  9. PLoS Comput Biol. 2012;8(7):e1002616 [PMID: 22844241]
  10. J Infect Public Health. 2017 Sep - Oct;10(5):494-498 [PMID: 28262571]
  11. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2017 Dec 01;3(4):e93 [PMID: 29196278]
  12. PLoS One. 2013;8(1):e55205 [PMID: 23372837]
  13. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2014 Feb 27;8(2):e2713 [PMID: 24587465]
  14. Ann Transl Med. 2016 Feb;4(3):56 [PMID: 26904578]
  15. Clin Infect Dis. 2009 Nov 15;49(10):1557-64 [PMID: 19845471]
  16. Comput Inform Nurs. 2017 Jan;35(1):29-35 [PMID: 26950091]
  17. Hum Vaccin Immunother. 2017 Feb;13(2):464-469 [PMID: 27983896]
  18. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2011 Aug;5(8):e1258 [PMID: 21829744]
  19. Life Sci Soc Policy. 2018 Jan 4;14(1):1 [PMID: 29302758]
  20. Trop Med Int Health. 2014 Sep;19(9):1116-60 [PMID: 24889501]
  21. Infect Dis Poverty. 2015 Dec 10;4:54 [PMID: 26654247]
  22. BMC Public Health. 2015 Jan 29;15:31 [PMID: 25631456]
  23. BMC Public Health. 2013 Nov 06;13:1048 [PMID: 24195519]
  24. Healthc Inform Res. 2017 Oct;23(4):343-348 [PMID: 29181246]

MeSH Term

Cell Phone
Dengue
Disease Outbreaks
Epidemics
Forecasting
Humans
Indonesia
Internet
Population Surveillance
Social Media

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0GoogleTrendsdatadenguecorrelation:IndonesiausesurveillanceusedstudymeasureofficialreporttimeseriesInternetpotentialreportsfevernationalusingMovingAverageanalysisPearsonTimelagalsoshowedlinearpatternindicated0DigitaltracesrapidlyhealthmonitoringpurposesrecentyearsapproachgrowingconsequenceincreasedmobilephonemachinelearningManystudiesreportedsourceassisttraditionalsystemsrisepenetration547%hugeutilization98%indicateperformedcountrywideaimsIndonesianresearchquantitative2012-2016TwosetsanalyzedMicrosoftExcelcorrelationshighthreedefinedsearchtermsR-valuerange921937��� 005overallperiodincreasingtrendepidemicperiods2015-2016canpotentiallyearlywarningsystemnoveltoolmonitorpublicreactionincreasecasesoutbreakstatisticallycorrelatedannualIdentificationinformation-seekingbehaviorneededsupportdiseaseCorrelationdigitalepidemiologyinformationseeking

Similar Articles

Cited By (28)