The Challenge of Transparency and Validation in Health Economic Decision Modelling: A View from Mount Hood.
Seamus Kent, Frauke Becker, Talitha Feenstra, An Tran-Duy, Iryna Schlackow, Michelle Tew, Ping Zhang, Wen Ye, Shi Lizheng, William Herman, Phil McEwan, Wendelin Schramm, Alastair Gray, Jose Leal, Mark Lamotte, Michael Willis, Andrew J Palmer, Philip Clarke
Author Information
Seamus Kent: Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. ORCID
Frauke Becker: Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Talitha Feenstra: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Nutrition, Prevention and Health Services Research, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
An Tran-Duy: Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Iryna Schlackow: Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Michelle Tew: Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Ping Zhang: Division of Diabetes Translation, Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA.
Wen Ye: School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.
Shi Lizheng: Department of Health Management and Policy, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, USA.
William Herman: School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, USA.
Phil McEwan: Centre for Health Economics, Swansea University, Swansea, UK.
Wendelin Schramm: GECKO Institute, Heilbronn University, Heilbronn, Germany.
Alastair Gray: Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Jose Leal: Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Mark Lamotte: IQVIA, Zaventem, Belgium.
Michael Willis: The Swedish Institute for Health Economics, Lund, Sweden.
Andrew J Palmer: Centre for Health Policy, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
Philip Clarke: Health Economics Research Centre, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. philip.clarke@ndph.ox.ac.uk.
Transparency in health economic decision modelling is important for engendering confidence in the models and in the reliability of model-based cost-effectiveness analyses. The Mount Hood diabetes Challenge Network has taken a lead in promoting transparency through validation with biennial conferences in which diabetes modelling groups meet to compare simulated outcomes of pre-specified scenarios often based on the results of pivotal clinical trials. Model registration is a potential method for promoting transparency, while also reducing the duplication of effort. An important network initiative is the ongoing construction of a diabetes model registry (https://www.mthooddiabeteschallenge.com). Following the 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and the Society of Medical Decision Making (ISPOR-SMDM) guidelines, we recommend that modelling groups provide technical and non-technical documentation sufficient to enable model reproduction, but not necessarily provide the model code. We also request that modelling groups upload documentation on the methods and outcomes of validation efforts, and run reference case simulations so that model outcomes can be compared. In this paper, we discuss conflicting definitions of transparency in health economic modelling, and describe the ongoing development of a registry of economic models for diabetes through the Mount Hood diabetes Challenge Network, its objectives and potential further developments, and highlight the challenges in its construction and maintenance. The support of key stakeholders such as decision-making bodies and journals is key to ensuring the success of this and other registries. In the absence of public funding, the development of a network of modellers is of huge value in enhancing transparency, whether through registries or other means.
