Semi-parametric Regression under Model Uncertainty: Economic Applications.

Gertraud Malsiner-Walli, Paul Hofmarcher, Bettina Grün
Author Information
  1. Gertraud Malsiner-Walli: Department of Finance, Accounting and Statistics Vienna University of Economics and Business (WU) Welthandelsplatz 1 1020 Vienna Austria.
  2. Paul Hofmarcher: Salzburg Centre of European Union Studies (SCEUS) Department of Business, Economics and Social Theory Paris Lodron University of Salzburg Mönchsberg 2a 5020 Salzburg Austria.
  3. Bettina Grün: Department of Applied Statistics Johannes Kepler University Linz Altenbergerstraße 69 4040 Linz Austria.

Abstract

Economic theory does not always specify the functional relationship between dependent and explanatory variables, or even isolate a particular set of covariates. This means that model uncertainty is pervasive in empirical economics. In this paper, we indicate how Bayesian semi-parametric regression methods in combination with stochastic search variable selection can be used to address two model uncertainties simultaneously: (i) the uncertainty with respect to the variables which should be included in the model and (ii) the uncertainty with respect to the functional form of their effects. The presented approach enables the simultaneous identification of robust linear and nonlinear effects. The additional insights gained are illustrated on applications in empirical economics, namely willingness to pay for housing, and cross-country growth regression.

References

  1. J Am Stat Assoc. 2015 Dec 1;110(512):1479-1490 [PMID: 27019543]

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