A quantitative and qualitative analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic model.

Sarbaz H A Khoshnaw, Muhammad Shahzad, Mehboob Ali, Faisal Sultan
Author Information
  1. Sarbaz H A Khoshnaw: Department of Mathematics, University of Raparin, Ranya, Sulaimani, Iraq.
  2. Muhammad Shahzad: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Hazara University, Mansehra 21300, Pakistan.
  3. Mehboob Ali: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Hazara University, Mansehra 21300, Pakistan.
  4. Faisal Sultan: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Hazara University, Mansehra 21300, Pakistan.

Abstract

Global efforts around the world are focused on to discuss several health care strategies for minimizing the impact of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) on the community. As it is clear that this virus becomes a public health threat and spreading easily among individuals. Mathematical models with computational simulations are effective tools that help global efforts to estimate key transmission parameters and further improvements for controlling this disease. This is an infectious disease and can be modeled as a system of non-linear differential equations with reaction rates. This work reviews and develops some suggested models for the COVID-19 that can address important questions about global health care and suggest important notes. Then, we suggest an updated model that includes a system of differential equations with transmission parameters. Some key computational simulations and sensitivity analysis are investigated. Also, the local sensitivities for each model state concerning the model parameters are computed using three different techniques: non-normalizations, half normalizations, and full normalizations. Results based on the computational simulations show that the model dynamics are significantly changed for different key model parameters. Interestingly, we identify that transition rates between asymptomatic infected with both reported and unreported symptomatic infected individuals are very sensitive parameters concerning model variables in spreading this disease. This helps international efforts to reduce the number of infected individuals from the disease and to prevent the propagation of new coronavirus more widely on the community. Another novelty of this paper is the identification of the critical model parameters, which makes it easy to be used by biologists with less knowledge of mathematical modeling and also facilitates the improvement of the model for future development theoretically and practically.

Keywords

References

  1. Lancet Public Health. 2020 May;5(5):e261-e270 [PMID: 32220655]
  2. N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1199-1207 [PMID: 31995857]
  3. Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Nov 1;180(9):865-75 [PMID: 25294601]
  4. Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Mar 10;17(3):2693-2707 [PMID: 32233561]
  5. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Jun;26(6):1341-1343 [PMID: 32191173]
  6. Biology (Basel). 2020 Mar 08;9(3): [PMID: 32182724]
  7. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020 May;20(5):553-558 [PMID: 32171059]
  8. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Apr 21;106(16):6433-4 [PMID: 19380716]
  9. J Travel Med. 2020 Mar 13;27(2): [PMID: 32052846]
  10. Math Biosci Eng. 2020 Mar 16;17(4):2792-2804 [PMID: 32987496]
  11. IET Syst Biol. 2011 Nov;5(6):336-6 [PMID: 22129029]
  12. BMC Med. 2020 Oct 14;18(1):324 [PMID: 33050951]
  13. Bull Math Biol. 2017 Jul;79(7):1449-1486 [PMID: 28656491]
  14. J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 07;9(2): [PMID: 32046137]
  15. Infect Dis Model. 2020 Feb 11;5:248-255 [PMID: 32099934]
  16. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr;93:201-204 [PMID: 32097725]
  17. J Clin Med. 2020 Mar 13;9(3): [PMID: 32183172]
  18. N Engl J Med. 2020 Feb 20;382(8):727-733 [PMID: 31978945]
  19. Viruses. 2012 Nov 12;4(11):3044-68 [PMID: 23202515]
  20. Lancet Glob Health. 2020 Apr;8(4):e488-e496 [PMID: 32119825]
  21. J Travel Med. 2020 Mar 13;27(2): [PMID: 31943059]
  22. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2005 Nov;24(11 Suppl):S223-7, discussion S226 [PMID: 16378050]
  23. Int J Infect Dis. 2020 Apr;93:284-286 [PMID: 32145466]
  24. Lancet. 2020 Feb 29;395(10225):689-697 [PMID: 32014114]
  25. Lancet. 2020 Feb 15;395(10223):497-506 [PMID: 31986264]
  26. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Feb 28;9(1):24 [PMID: 32111262]
  27. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Dec 30;111(52):18507-12 [PMID: 25512544]
  28. J Med Virol. 2020 Jun;92(6):577-583 [PMID: 32162702]
  29. CMAJ. 2020 May 11;192(19):E497-E505 [PMID: 32269018]
  30. Infect Dis Model. 2020;5:271-281 [PMID: 32289100]

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0modelparametersdiseaseCOVID-19simulationseffortshealthindividualscomputationalkeyanalysisinfectedcarenewcoronaviruscommunityspreadingMathematicalmodelsglobaltransmissioncansystemdifferentialequationsratesimportantsuggestconcerningdifferentnormalizationsmodelingGlobalaroundworldfocuseddiscussseveralstrategiesminimizingimpactclearvirusbecomespublicthreateasilyamongeffectivetoolshelpestimateimprovementscontrollinginfectiousmodelednon-linearreactionworkreviewsdevelopssuggestedaddressquestionsnotesupdatedincludessensitivityinvestigatedAlsolocalsensitivitiesstatecomputedusingthreetechniques:non-normalizationshalffullResultsbasedshowdynamicssignificantlychangedInterestinglyidentifytransitionasymptomaticreportedunreportedsymptomaticsensitivevariableshelpsinternationalreducenumberpreventpropagationwidelyAnothernoveltypaperidentificationcriticalmakeseasyusedbiologistslessknowledgemathematicalalsofacilitatesimprovementfuturedevelopmenttheoreticallypracticallyquantitativequalitativepandemicComputationalCoronavirusModelreductionSensitivity

Similar Articles

Cited By