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Global change biology
Oct, 2020;26 (10): 5646-5660.

Vulnerability of global coral reef habitat suitability to ocean warming, acidification and eutrophication.

Yi Guan, Sönke Hohn, Christian Wild, Agostino Merico
Author Information
  1. Yi Guan: Systems Ecology Group, Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research, Bremen, Germany. ORCID
  2. Sönke Hohn: Systems Ecology Group, Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research, Bremen, Germany.
  3. Christian Wild: Department Marine Ecology, Faculty of Biology and Chemistry (FB 2), University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany.
  4. Agostino Merico: Systems Ecology Group, Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research, Bremen, Germany. ORCID
PMID: 32713061 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15293

Abstract

Coral reefs are threatened by global and local stressors. Yet, reefs appear to respond differently to different environmental stressors. Using a global dataset of coral reef occurrence as a proxy for the long-term adaptation of corals to environmental conditions in combination with global environmental data, we show here how global (warming: sea surface temperature; acidification: aragonite saturation state, Ω ) and local (eutrophication: nitrate concentration, and phosphate concentration) stressors influence coral reef habitat suitability. We analyse the relative distance of coral communities to their regional environmental optima. In addition, we calculate the expected change of coral reef habitat suitability across the tropics in relation to an increase of 0.1°C in temperature, an increase of 0.02 μmol/L in nitrate, an increase of 0.01 μmol/L in phosphate and a decrease of 0.04 in Ω . Our findings reveal that only 6% of the reefs worldwide will be unaffected by local and global stressors and can thus act as temporary refugia. Local stressors, driven by nutrient increase, will affect 22% of the reefs worldwide, whereas global stressors will affect 11% of these reefs. The remaining 61% of the reefs will be simultaneously affected by local and global stressors. Appropriate wastewater treatments can mitigate local eutrophication and could increase areas of temporary refugia to 28%, allowing us to 'buy time', while international agreements are found to abate global stressors.

Keywords

coral reef eutrophication global warming habitat suitability ocean acidification temporary refugia

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Grants

  1. /China Scholarship Council

MeSH Term

Animals
Anthozoa
Climate Change
Coral Reefs
Ecosystem
Eutrophication
Hydrogen-Ion Concentration
Oceans and Seas
Journal Article
Article has an altmetric score of 34

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