Estimation of COVID-19 epidemic curves using genetic programming algorithm.

Nikola Anđelić, Sandi Baressi Šegota, Ivan Lorencin, Vedran Mrzljak, Zlatan Car
Author Information
  1. Nikola Anđelić: University of Rijeka, Faculty of Engineering, Rijeka, Croatia.
  2. Sandi Baressi Šegota: University of Rijeka, Faculty of Engineering, Rijeka, Croatia. ORCID
  3. Ivan Lorencin: University of Rijeka, Faculty of Engineering, Rijeka, Croatia.
  4. Vedran Mrzljak: University of Rijeka, Faculty of Engineering, Rijeka, Croatia.
  5. Zlatan Car: University of Rijeka, Faculty of Engineering, Rijeka, Croatia.

Abstract

This paper investigates the possibility of the implementation of Genetic Programming (GP) algorithm on a publicly available COVID-19 data set, in order to obtain mathematical models which could be used for estimation of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases and the estimation of epidemiology curve for specific countries, with a high number of cases, such as China, Italy, Spain, and USA and as well as on the global scale. The conducted investigation shows that the best mathematical models produced for estimating confirmed and deceased cases achieved scores of 0.999, while the models developed for estimation of recovered cases achieved the score of 0.998. The equations generated for confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases were combined in order to estimate the epidemiology curve of specific countries and on the global scale. The estimated epidemiology curve for each country obtained from these equations is almost identical to the real data contained within the data set.

Keywords

MeSH Term

Algorithms
COVID-19
Epidemics
Epidemiologic Methods
Humans
Machine Learning
Models, Theoretical
SARS-CoV-2

Word Cloud

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