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Dec, 2020;7 (12): 201878.

SI epidemic model applied to COVID-19 data in mainland China.

J Demongeot, Q Griette, P Magal
Author Information
  1. J Demongeot: Department of Medicine, Université Grenoble Alpes, AGEIS EA7407, 38700 La Tronche, France.
  2. Q Griette: Department of Medicine, University of Bordeaux, IMB, UMR, 5251, 33400 Talence, France.
  3. P Magal: Department of Medicine, University of Bordeaux, IMB, UMR, 5251, 33400 Talence, France. ORCID
PMID: 33489297 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.201878

Abstract

The article is devoted to the parameters identification in the SI model. We consider several methods, starting with an exponential fit to the early cumulative data of SARS-CoV2 in mainland China. The present methodology provides a way to compute the parameters at the early stage of the epidemic. Next, we establish an identifiability result. Then we use the Bernoulli-Verhulst model as a phenomenological model to fit the data and derive some results on the parameters identification. The last part of the paper is devoted to some numerical algorithms to fit a daily piecewise constant rate of transmission.

Keywords

corona virus epidemic mathematical model parameters identification reported and unreported cases

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Journal Article

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