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06 25, 2021;11 (1): 12833.

Coral distribution and bleaching vulnerability areas in Southwestern Atlantic under ocean warming.

Jessica Bleuel, Maria Grazia Pennino, Guilherme O Longo
Author Information
  1. Jessica Bleuel: Laboratório de Ecologia Marinha, Departamento de Oceanografia e Limnologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Av. Via Costeira/Senador Dinarte Mariz s/n, Natal, RN, 59014-002, Brasil.
  2. Maria Grazia Pennino: Instituto de Español de Oceanografía, Subida Radio Faro, 50, 36390, Vigo, Spain.
  3. Guilherme O Longo: Laboratório de Ecologia Marinha, Departamento de Oceanografia e Limnologia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Av. Via Costeira/Senador Dinarte Mariz s/n, Natal, RN, 59014-002, Brasil. guilherme.o.longo@gmail.com.
PMID: 34172760 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-92202-2

Abstract

Global climate change is a major threat to reefs by increasing the frequency and severity of coral bleaching events over time, reducing coral cover and diversity. Ocean warming may cause shifts in coral communities by increasing temperatures above coral's upper thermal limits in tropical regions, and by making extratropical regions (marginal reefs) more suitable and potential refugia. We used Bayesian models to project coral occurrence, cover and bleaching probabilities in Southwestern Atlantic and predicted how these probabilities will change under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). By overlapping these projections, we categorized areas that combine high probabilities of coral occurrence, cover and bleaching as vulnerability-hotspots. Current coral occurrence and cover probabilities were higher in the tropics (1°S-20°S) but both will decrease and shift to new suitable extratropical reefs (20°S-27°S; tropicalization) with ocean warming. Over 90% of the area present low and mild vulnerability, while the vulnerability-hotspots represent ~ 3% under current and future scenarios, but include the most biodiverse reef complex in South Atlantic (13°S-18°S; Abrolhos Bank). As bleaching probabilities increase with warming, the least vulnerable areas that could act as potential refugia are predicted to reduce by 50%. Predicting potential refugia and highly vulnerable areas can inform conservation actions to face climate change.

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MeSH Term

Animals
Anthozoa
Atlantic Ocean
Climate Change
Coral Reefs
Ecosystem
Global Warming
Seawater
Temperature
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