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2021;2 e15.

Weather variability and transmissibility of COVID-19: a time series analysis based on effective reproductive number.

Michael Nevels, Xiaohan Si, Hilary Bambrick, Yuzhou Zhang, Jian Cheng, Hannah McClymont, Michael B Bonsall, Wenbiao Hu
Author Information
  1. Michael Nevels: University of St Andrews, Biomolecular Sciences Building, Fife, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, KY16 9ST.
  2. Xiaohan Si: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4059, Queensland, Australia. ORCID
  3. Hilary Bambrick: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4059, Queensland, Australia.
  4. Yuzhou Zhang: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4059, Queensland, Australia.
  5. Jian Cheng: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4059, Queensland, Australia.
  6. Hannah McClymont: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4059, Queensland, Australia. ORCID
  7. Michael B Bonsall: Mathematical Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3SZ, UK.
  8. Wenbiao Hu: School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, 4059, Queensland, Australia. ORCID
PMID: 34192228 DOI: 10.1017/exp.2021.4

Abstract

COVID-19 is causing a significant burden on medical and healthcare resources globally due to high numbers of hospitalisations and deaths recorded as the pandemic continues. This research aims to assess the effects of climate factors (i.e., daily average temperature and average relative humidity) on effective reproductive number of COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China during the early stage of the outbreak. Our research showed that effective reproductive number of COVID-19 will increase by 7.6% (95% Confidence Interval: 5.4% ~ 9.8%) per 1°C drop in mean temperature at prior moving average of 0-8 days lag in Wuhan, China. Our results indicate temperature was negatively associated with COVID-19 transmissibility during early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting temperature is likely to effect COVID-19 transmission. These results suggest increased precautions should be taken in the colder seasons to reduce COVID-19 transmission in the future, based on past success in controlling the pandemic in Wuhan, China.

Keywords

COVID-19 effective reproductive number time series regression model weather factors

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Journal Article
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