Forecast of the COVID-19 Epidemic Based on RF-BOA-LightGBM.

Zhe Li, Dehua Hu
Author Information
  1. Zhe Li: School of Life Sciences, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China. ORCID
  2. Dehua Hu: School of Life Sciences, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China. ORCID

Abstract

In this paper, we utilize the Internet big data tool, namely Baidu Index, to predict the development trend of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic to obtain further data. By selecting appropriate keywords, we can collect the data of COVID-19 cases in China between 1 January 2020 and 1 April 2020. After preprocessing the data set, the optimal sub-data set can be obtained by using random forest feature selection method. The optimization results of the seven hyperparameters of the LightGBM model by grid search, random search and Bayesian optimization algorithms are compared. The experimental results show that applying the data set obtained from the Baidu Index to the Bayesian-optimized LightGBM model can better predict the growth of the number of patients with new coronary pneumonias, and also help people to make accurate judgments to the development trend of the new coronary pneumonia.

Keywords

References

  1. Lancet Digit Health. 2020 Apr;2(4):e166-e167 [PMID: 32289116]
  2. Infect Dis Poverty. 2013 Dec 20;2(1):31 [PMID: 24359669]
  3. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2015 May;36(5):470-5 [PMID: 26080636]
  4. Sci Rep. 2019 Jul 18;9(1):10434 [PMID: 31320681]
  5. Evol Appl. 2017 Sep 14;11(2):153-165 [PMID: 29387152]
  6. J Comput Sci Technol. 2022;37(2):330-343 [PMID: 35496726]

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0dataBaidunewcanCOVID-19setrandomoptimizationLightGBMIndexpredictdevelopmenttrendpneumonia12020obtainedforestresultsmodelsearchcoronarypaperutilizeInternetbigtoolnamelycoronavirusepidemicobtainselectingappropriatekeywordscollectcasesChinaJanuaryAprilpreprocessingoptimalsub-datausingfeatureselectionmethodsevenhyperparametersgridBayesianalgorithmscomparedexperimentalshowapplyingBayesian-optimizedbettergrowthnumberpatientspneumoniasalsohelppeoplemakeaccuratejudgmentsForecastEpidemicBasedRF-BOA-LightGBMindexbayesian

Similar Articles

Cited By