An evaluative model for assessing pandemic resilience at the neighborhood level: The case of Tehran.

Azadeh Lak, Pantea Hakimian, Ayyoob Sharifi
Author Information
  1. Azadeh Lak: Department of Planning and Urban Design, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
  2. Pantea Hakimian: Department of Planning and Urban Design, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
  3. Ayyoob Sharifi: Hiroshima University, Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences & Network for Education and Research on Peace and Sustainability (NERPS), Japan.

Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 virus, which has caused abundant mortalities in human settlements, has drawn the attention of urban planners and policy-makers to the necessity of improving resilience to future pandemics. In this study, a set of indicators related to pandemic resilience were identified and used to develop a composite multi-dimensional pandemic resilience index for Tehran's neighborhoods. The physical, infrastructural, socio-economic, and environmental dimensions of pandemic resilience were defined considering the conditions of 351 neighborhoods through the exploratory factor analysis method. Accordingly, the pandemic resilience (PR) score of the neighborhoods was calculated. Furthermore, the Pearson correlation analysis was used to validate the PR scores by examining the correlation between the neighborhood PR scores and the number of confirmed cases. For this purpose, we used a sample consisting of 43,000 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the first five months of its spread. The test shows a statistically significant negative correlation between neighborhoods' resilience score and the cumulative number of confirmed patients in the neighborhoods (r= -.456, P<0.001). This study also tries to develop a new model to better understand health determinants of pandemic resilience. The proposed model can inform planners and policymakers to take appropriate measures to create more pandemic-resilient urban neighborhoods.

Keywords

References

  1. Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2020 Jun 30;34:71 [PMID: 33306051]
  2. Sustain Cities Soc. 2021 Sep;72:103034 [PMID: 36570724]
  3. Health Place. 2020 Nov;66:102446 [PMID: 33045672]
  4. Sustain Cities Soc. 2021 Apr;67:102752 [PMID: 33558840]
  5. Sustain Cities Soc. 2020 Nov;62:102418 [PMID: 32834939]
  6. Med J Islam Repub Iran. 2021 Oct 04;35:128 [PMID: 35321381]
  7. Nat Hazards (Dordr). 2021;106(1):829-854 [PMID: 33424119]
  8. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Jan 08;16(1): [PMID: 30626123]
  9. Sustain Cities Soc. 2021 Jul;70:102911 [PMID: 36567891]
  10. Sci Total Environ. 2020 Aug 10;729:138995 [PMID: 32353723]
  11. Health Educ Behav. 2020 Aug;47(4):509-513 [PMID: 32436405]
  12. PLoS One. 2020 Oct 29;15(10):e0241166 [PMID: 33119721]
  13. Sci Total Environ. 2020 Aug 1;728:138884 [PMID: 32335404]
  14. Environ Urban. 2020 Oct;32(2):503-522 [PMID: 36438604]
  15. Sustain Cities Soc. 2021 Feb;65:102577 [PMID: 33163331]
  16. N Engl J Med. 2020 Mar 26;382(13):1199-1207 [PMID: 31995857]
  17. Saf Sci. 2020 Oct;130:104862 [PMID: 32536749]
  18. J Clin Epidemiol. 2020 Dec;128:35-48 [PMID: 32526461]
  19. Sustain Cities Soc. 2021 Mar;66:102685 [PMID: 33520609]
  20. Children (Basel). 2020 Sep 16;7(9): [PMID: 32947805]
  21. J Endocrinol Invest. 2016 May;39(5):515-22 [PMID: 26359145]
  22. Arch Acad Emerg Med. 2020 Sep 06;8(1):e70 [PMID: 33134966]
  23. Sci Total Environ. 2020 Dec 20;749:142391 [PMID: 33370924]
  24. PLoS One. 2020 Jul 28;15(7):e0236238 [PMID: 32722716]
  25. Curr Opin Environ Sustain. 2020 Oct;46:27-31 [PMID: 32874374]
  26. Nature. 2020 Jul;583(7816):352-355 [PMID: 32651472]
  27. Sci Total Environ. 2020 Oct 15;739:140033 [PMID: 32534320]
  28. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014 Jun 18;11(6):6335-53 [PMID: 24945190]
  29. Sustain Cities Soc. 2020 Oct;61:102350 [PMID: 32834930]
  30. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Oct 13;17(20): [PMID: 33066177]
  31. Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jan 10;751:141663 [PMID: 32866831]

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0resiliencepandemicneighborhoodsCOVID-19usedPRcorrelationconfirmedmodelspreadurbanplannersstudydevelopanalysisscorescoresneighborhoodnumberpatientsTehranPandemicviruscausedabundantmortalitieshumansettlementsdrawnattentionpolicy-makersnecessityimprovingfuturepandemicssetindicatorsrelatedidentifiedcompositemulti-dimensionalindexTehran'sphysicalinfrastructuralsocio-economicenvironmentaldimensionsdefinedconsideringconditions351exploratoryfactormethodAccordinglycalculatedFurthermorePearsonvalidateexaminingcasespurposesampleconsisting43000firstfivemonthstestshowsstatisticallysignificantnegativeneighborhoods'cumulativer=-456P<0001alsotriesnewbetterunderstandhealthdeterminantsproposedcaninformpolicymakerstakeappropriatemeasurescreatepandemic-resilientevaluativeassessinglevel:caseEvaluativeModelResilientNeighborhoodUrbanResilience

Similar Articles

Cited By (10)