The BISAP score, NLR, CRP, or BUN: Which marker best predicts the outcome of acute pancreatitis?
Greta Maria Dancu, Alina Popescu, Roxana Sirli, Mirela Danila, Felix Bende, Cristi Tarta, Ioan Sporea
Author Information
Greta Maria Dancu: Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania.
Alina Popescu: Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania. ORCID
Roxana Sirli: Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania.
Mirela Danila: Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania.
Felix Bende: Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania.
Cristi Tarta: Department X, 2nd Surgical Clinic, Researching Future Chirurgie 2, Victor Babes University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Timisoara, Romania.
Ioan Sporea: Department of Internal Medicine II, Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Center for Advanced Research in Gastroenterology and Hepatology "Victor Babes" University of Medicine and Pharmacy Timisoara, Romania.
ABSTRACT: Acute pancreatitis is a common disease, and the mortality rate can be high. Thus, a risk assessment should be performed early to optimize treatment. We compared simple prognostic markers with the bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring system to identify the best predictors of severity and mortality.This retrospective study stratified disease severity based on the revised Atlanta criteria. The accuracies of the markers for predicting severe AP (SAP) were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were calculated for each marker. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent predictors of SAP and mortality.The area under the curve (AUC) for the BISAP score was classified as fair for predicting SAP. The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio at 48 hours (NLR48 h) and the C-reactive protein level at 48 hours (CRP48 h) had the best AUCs and were independently associated with SAP. When both criteria were met, the AUC was 0.89, sensitivity was 68%, and specificity was 92%. CRP48 h and hematocrit at 48 hours were independently associated with mortality.NLR48 h and CRP48 h were independently associated with SAP but not superior to the BISAP score at admission. Assessing NLR48 h and CRP48H together was most suitable for predicting SAP. The CRP level was a good predictive marker for mortality.
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