Discovering spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea.

Sungchan Kim, Minseok Kim, Sunmi Lee, Young Ju Lee
Author Information
  1. Sungchan Kim: Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea.
  2. Minseok Kim: Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea.
  3. Sunmi Lee: Department of Applied Mathematics, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Republic of Korea. sunmilee@khu.ac.kr.
  4. Young Ju Lee: Department of Mathematics, Texas State University, San Marcos, TX, USA. yjlee@txstate.edu.

Abstract

A novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 emerged in December 2019, and it took only a few months for WHO to declare COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020. It is very challenging to discover complex spatial-temporal transmission mechanisms. However, it is crucial to capture essential features of regional-temporal patterns of COVID-19 to implement prompt and effective prevention or mitigation interventions. In this work, we develop a novel framework of compatible window-wise dynamic mode decomposition (CwDMD) for nonlinear infectious disease dynamics. The compatible window is a selected representative subdomain of time series data, in which compatibility between spatial and temporal resolutions is established so that DMD can provide meaningful data analysis. A total of four compatible windows have been selected from COVID-19 time-series data from January 20, 2020, to May 10, 2021, in South Korea. The spatiotemporal patterns of these four windows are then analyzed. Several hot and cold spots were identified, their spatial-temporal relationships, and some hidden regional patterns were discovered. Our analysis reveals that the first wave was contained in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk areas, but it spread rapidly to the whole of South Korea after the second wave. Later on, the spatial distribution is seen to become more homogeneous after the third wave. Our analysis also identifies that some patterns are not related to regional relevance. These findings have then been analyzed and associated with the inter-regional and local characteristics of South Korea. Thus, the present study is expected to provide public health officials helpful insights for future regional-temporal specific mitigation plans.

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Grants

  1. SSTF-BA2002-02/Samsung Science and Technology Foundation
  2. NRF2020H1D3A2A01041079/Brain Pool Program through 653 the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science and ICT 654

MeSH Term

Algorithms
COVID-19
Humans
Republic of Korea
SARS-CoV-2
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Time Factors

Word Cloud

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