A sentiment-based modeling and analysis of stock price during the COVID-19: U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery.

Anish Rai, Ajit Mahata, Md Nurujjaman, Sushovan Majhi, Kanish Debnath
Author Information
  1. Anish Rai: Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology Sikkim, Sikkim, 737139, India.
  2. Ajit Mahata: Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology Sikkim, Sikkim, 737139, India.
  3. Md Nurujjaman: Department of Physics, National Institute of Technology Sikkim, Sikkim, 737139, India.
  4. Sushovan Majhi: School of Information, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
  5. Kanish Debnath: Department of Economics, Flame University, Pune, 412115, India.

Abstract

In the aftermath of stock market crash due to COVID-19, not all sectors recovered in the same way. Recently, a stock price model is proposed by Mahata et al. (2021) that describes V- and L-shaped recovery of the stocks and indices, but fails to simulate the U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery that arises due to sharp fall, continuation at the low price and followed by quick recovery, slow recovery for longer period, respectively. We propose a modified model by introducing a new parameter to quantify investors' positive, neutral and negative sentiments, respectively. The model explains movement of sectoral indices with positive financial anti-fragility ( ) showing U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery. Simulation using synthetic fund-flow with different shock lengths, , negative sentiment period and portion of fund-flow during recovery period show U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery. It shows that recovery of indices with positive becomes very weak with extended shock and negative sentiment period. Stocks with higher and fund-flow show quick recovery. Simulation of Nifty Bank, Nifty Financial and Nifty Realty show U-shaped recovery and Nifty IT shows Swoosh-shaped recovery. Simulation results are consistent with stock price movement. The estimated time-scale of shock and recovery of these indices are also consistent with the time duration of change of negative sentiment from the onset of COVID-19. We conclude that investors need to evaluate sentiment along with before investing in stock markets because negative sentiment can dampen the recovery even in financially anti-fragile stocks.

Keywords

References

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