Land-use trajectories for sustainable land system transformations: Identifying leverage points in a global biodiversity hotspot.
Dominic Andreas Martin, Fanilo Andrianisaina, Thio Rosin Fulgence, Kristina Osen, Anjaharinony Andry Ny Aina Rakotomalala, Estelle Raveloaritiana, Marie Rolande Soazafy, Annemarie Wurz, Rouvah Andriafanomezantsoa, Harilala Andriamaniraka, Aristide Andrianarimisa, Jan Barkmann, Saskia Dröge, Ingo Grass, Nathaly Guerrero-Ramirez, Hendrik Hänke, Dirk Hölscher, Bakolimalala Rakouth, Hery Lisy Tiana Ranarijaona, Romual Randriamanantena, Fanomezana Mihaja Ratsoavina, Lala Harivelo Raveloson Ravaomanarivo, Dominik Schwab, Teja Tscharntke, Delphine Clara Zemp, Holger Kreft
Author Information
Dominic Andreas Martin: Biodiversity, Macroecology, and Biogeography, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany; dominic.martin@wyssacademy.org. ORCID
Fanilo Andrianisaina: Department of Tropical Agriculture and Sustainable Development, Higher School of Agronomic Sciences, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar. ORCID
Thio Rosin Fulgence: Zoology and Animal Biodiversity, Faculty of Sciences, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar. ORCID
Kristina Osen: Tropical Silviculture and Forest Ecology, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany. ORCID
Anjaharinony Andry Ny Aina Rakotomalala: Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar. ORCID
Estelle Raveloaritiana: Plant Biology and Ecology Department, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar. ORCID
Marie Rolande Soazafy: Natural and Environmental Sciences, Regional University Centre of the SAVA Region, Antalaha 206, Madagascar. ORCID
Annemarie Wurz: Agroecology, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany.
Rouvah Andriafanomezantsoa: Zoology and Animal Biodiversity, Faculty of Sciences, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar.
Harilala Andriamaniraka: Department of Tropical Agriculture and Sustainable Development, Higher School of Agronomic Sciences, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar.
Aristide Andrianarimisa: Zoology and Animal Biodiversity, Faculty of Sciences, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar. ORCID
Jan Barkmann: Department of Social Sciences, Risk, and Sustainability Sciences, Hochschule Darmstadt, University of Applied Sciences, 64295 Darmstadt, Germany. ORCID
Saskia Dröge: Biodiversity, Macroecology, and Biogeography, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany. ORCID
Ingo Grass: Ecology of Tropical Agricultural Systems, University of Hohenheim, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany. ORCID
Nathaly Guerrero-Ramirez: Biodiversity, Macroecology, and Biogeography, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany. ORCID
Hendrik Hänke: Research Unit Environmental and Resource Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, University of Goettingen, 37073 Goettingen, Germany. ORCID
Dirk Hölscher: Tropical Silviculture and Forest Ecology, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany.
Bakolimalala Rakouth: Plant Biology and Ecology Department, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar. ORCID
Hery Lisy Tiana Ranarijaona: Biodiversity and Conservation, University of Mahajanga, Mahajanga 401, Madagascar.
Romual Randriamanantena: Natural and Environmental Sciences, Regional University Centre of the SAVA Region, Antalaha 206, Madagascar.
Fanomezana Mihaja Ratsoavina: Zoology and Animal Biodiversity, Faculty of Sciences, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar.
Lala Harivelo Raveloson Ravaomanarivo: Entomology Department, Faculty of Science, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo 101, Madagascar.
Dominik Schwab: Agroecology, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany. ORCID
Teja Tscharntke: Agroecology, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany.
Delphine Clara Zemp: Biodiversity, Macroecology, and Biogeography, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany.
Holger Kreft: Biodiversity, Macroecology, and Biogeography, University of Goettingen, 37077 Goettingen, Germany. ORCID
Sustainable land-system transformations are necessary to avert biodiversity and climate collapse. However, it remains unclear where entry points for transformations exist in complex land systems. Here, we conceptualize land systems along land-use trajectories, which allows us to identify and evaluate leverage points, i.e., entry points on the trajectory where targeted interventions have particular leverage to influence land-use decisions. We apply this framework in the biodiversity hotspot Madagascar. In the northeast, smallholder agriculture results in a land-use trajectory originating in old-growth forests and spanning from forest fragments to shifting hill rice cultivation and vanilla agroforests. Integrating interdisciplinary empirical data on seven taxa, five ecosystem services, and three measures of agricultural productivity, we assess trade-offs and cobenefits of land-use decisions at three leverage points along the trajectory. These trade-offs and cobenefits differ between leverage points: Two leverage points are situated at the conversion of old-growth forests and forest fragments to shifting cultivation and agroforestry, resulting in considerable trade-offs, especially between endemic biodiversity and agricultural productivity. Here, interventions enabling smallholders to conserve forests are necessary. This is urgent since ongoing forest loss threatens to eliminate these leverage points due to path dependency. The third leverage point allows for the restoration of land under shifting cultivation through vanilla agroforests and offers cobenefits between restoration goals and agricultural productivity. The co-occurring leverage points highlight that conservation and restoration are simultaneously necessary to avert collapse of multifunctional mosaic landscapes. Methodologically, the framework highlights the importance of considering path dependency along trajectories to achieve sustainable land-system transformations.
