Jonathan M Moch, Loretta J Mickley, Christoph A Keller, Huisheng Bian, Elizabeth W Lundgren, Shixian Zhai, Daniel J Jacob
Since 2013, Chinese policies have dramatically reduced emissions of particulates and their gas-phase precursors, but the implications of these reductions for aerosol-radiation interactions are unknown. Using a global, coupled chemistry-climate model, we examine how the radiative impacts of Chinese air pollution in the winter months of 2012 and 2013 affect local meteorology and how these changes may, in turn, influence surface concentrations of PM, particulate matter with diameter <2.5 μm. We then investigate how decreasing emissions through 2016 and 2017 alter this impact. We find that absorbing aerosols aloft in winter 2012 and 2013 heat the middle- and lower troposphere by ∼0.5-1 K, reducing cloud liquid water, snowfall, and snow cover. The subsequent decline in surface albedo appears to counteract the ∼15-20 W m decrease in shortwave radiation reaching the surface due to attenuation by aerosols overhead. The net result of this novel cloud-snowfall-albedo feedback in winters 2012-2013 is a slight increase in surface temperature of ∼0.5-1 K in some regions and little change elsewhere. The aerosol heating aloft, however, stabilizes the atmosphere and decreases the seasonal mean planetary boundary layer (PBL) height by ∼50 m. In winter 2016 and 2017, the ∼20% decrease in mean PM weakens the cloud-snowfall-albedo feedback, though it is still evident in western China, where the feedback again warms the surface by ∼0.5-1 K. Regardless of emissions, we find that aerosol-radiation interactions enhance mean surface PM pollution by 10%-20% across much of China during all four winters examined, mainly though suppression of PBL heights.
