Significant Amplification of Instantaneous Extreme Precipitation With Convective Self-Aggregation.

Nicolas A Da Silva, Caroline Muller, Sara Shamekh, Benjamin Fildier
Author Information
  1. Nicolas A Da Silva: Complexity and Climate, Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research Bremen Germany. ORCID
  2. Caroline Muller: Laboratoire de M��t��orologie Dynamique (LMD)/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) ��cole Normale Sup��rieure Paris Sciences & Lettres (PSL) Research University Sorbonne Universit�� ��cole Polytechnique CNRS Paris France. ORCID
  3. Sara Shamekh: Columbia University New York NY USA. ORCID
  4. Benjamin Fildier: Laboratoire de M��t��orologie Dynamique (LMD)/Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) ��cole Normale Sup��rieure Paris Sciences & Lettres (PSL) Research University Sorbonne Universit�� ��cole Polytechnique CNRS Paris France. ORCID

Abstract

This work explores the effect of convective self-aggregation on extreme rainfall intensities through an analysis at several stages of the cloud lifecycle. In addition to increases in 3-hourly extremes consistent with previous studies, we find that instantaneous rainrates increase significantly (+30%). We mainly focus on instantaneous extremes and, using a recent framework, relate their increase to increased precipitation efficiency: the local increase in relative humidity drives larger accretion efficiency and lower re-evaporation. An in-depth analysis based on an adapted scaling for precipitation extremes reveals that the dynamic contribution decreases (-25%) while the thermodynamic is slightly enhanced (+5%) with convective self-aggregation, leading to lower condensation rates. When the atmosphere is more organized into a moist convecting region and a dry convection-free region, deep convective updrafts are surrounded by a warmer environment which reduces convective instability and thus the dynamic contribution. The moister boundary-layer explains the positive thermodynamic contribution. The microphysic contribution is increased by +50% with aggregation. The latter is partly due to reduced evaporation of rain falling through a moister near-cloud environment, but also to the associated larger accretion efficiency. Thus, a potential change in convective organization regimes in a warming climate could lead to an evolution of tropical precipitation extremes significantly different than that expected from thermodynamical considerations. The relevance of self-aggregation to the real tropics is still debated. Improved fundamental understanding of self-aggregation, its sensitivity to warming and connection to precipitation extremes, is hence crucial to achieve accurate rainfall projections in a warming climate.

Keywords

References

  1. Nat Commun. 2015 Feb 24;6:6213 [PMID: 25708295]
  2. Nature. 2015 Mar 26;519(7544):451-4 [PMID: 25810207]
  3. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2021 Feb;13(2):e2020MS002256 [PMID: 36970188]
  4. J Adv Model Earth Syst. 2021 Nov;13(11):e2021MS002607 [PMID: 35860722]
  5. Surv Geophys. 2017;38(6):1199-1236 [PMID: 31997841]
  6. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Sep 1;106(35):14773-7 [PMID: 19706430]
  7. Nature. 2010 Aug 12;466(7308):849-52 [PMID: 20703303]

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0extremesconvectiveprecipitationself-aggregationcontributionincreasewarmingrainfallanalysisinstantaneoussignificantlyincreasedlargeraccretionefficiencylowerdynamicthermodynamicregionenvironmentmoisterclimateworkexploreseffectextremeintensitiesseveralstagescloudlifecycleadditionincreases3-hourlyconsistentpreviousstudiesfindrainrates+30%mainlyfocususingrecentframeworkrelateefficiency:localrelativehumiditydrivesre-evaporationin-depthbasedadaptedscalingrevealsdecreases-25%slightlyenhanced+5%leadingcondensationratesatmosphereorganizedmoistconvectingdryconvection-freedeepupdraftssurroundedwarmerreducesinstabilitythusboundary-layerexplainspositivemicrophysic+50%aggregationlatterpartlyduereducedevaporationrainfallingnear-cloudalsoassociatedThuspotentialchangeorganizationregimesleadevolutiontropicaldifferentexpectedthermodynamicalconsiderationsrelevancerealtropicsstilldebatedImprovedfundamentalunderstandingsensitivityconnectionhencecrucialachieveaccurateprojectionsSignificantAmplificationInstantaneousExtremePrecipitationConvectiveSelf-Aggregationconvectionmicrophysicsself���aggregation

Similar Articles

Cited By (3)