Shahar Talisman, Joshua Guedalia, Rivka Farkash, Tehila Avitan, Naama Srebnik, Yair Kasirer, Michael S Schimmel, Dunia Ghanem, Ron Unger, Sorina Grisaru Granovsky
Objective: Neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission among term neonates is associated with significant morbidity and mortality, as well as high healthcare costs. A comprehensive NICU admission risk assessment using an integrated statistical approach for this rare admission event may be used to build a risk calculation algorithm for this group of neonates prior to delivery. Methods: A single-center case−control retrospective study was conducted between August 2005 and December 2019, including in-hospital singleton live born neonates, born at ≥37 weeks’ gestation. Analyses included univariate and multivariable models combined with the machine learning gradient-boosting model (GBM). The primary aim of the study was to identify and quantify risk factors and causes of NICU admission of term neonates. Results: During the study period, 206,509 births were registered at the Shaare Zedek Medical Center. After applying the study exclusion criteria, 192,527 term neonates were included in the study; 5292 (2.75%) were admitted to the NICU. The NICU admission risk was significantly higher (ORs [95%CIs]) for offspring of nulliparous women (1.19 [1.07, 1.33]), those with diabetes mellitus or hypertensive complications of pregnancy (2.52 [2.09, 3.03] and 1.28 [1.02, 1.60] respectively), and for those born during the 37th week of gestation (2.99 [2.63, 3.41]; p < 0.001 for all), adjusted for congenital malformations and genetic syndromes. A GBM to predict NICU admission applied to data prior to delivery showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.750 (95%CI 0.743−0.757) and classified 27% as high risk and 73% as low risk. This risk stratification was significantly associated with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Conclusion: The present study identified NICU admission risk factors for term neonates; along with the machine learning ranking of the risk factors, the highly predictive model may serve as a basis for individual risk calculation algorithm prior to delivery. We suggest that in the future, this type of planning of the delivery will serve different health systems, in both high- and low-resource environments, along with the NICU admission or transfer policy.
