Using the atmospheric CO growth rate to constrain the CO flux from land use and land cover change since 1900.

Julia L Dohner, Benjamin Birner, Armin Schwartzman, Julia Pongratz, Ralph F Keeling
Author Information
  1. Julia L Dohner: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, California, USA. ORCID
  2. Benjamin Birner: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, California, USA. ORCID
  3. Armin Schwartzman: Division of Biostatistics, University of California, San Diego, California, USA. ORCID
  4. Julia Pongratz: Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians Universität, München, Germany. ORCID
  5. Ralph F Keeling: Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, California, USA. ORCID

Abstract

We explore the ability of the atmospheric CO record since 1900 to constrain the source of CO from land use and land cover change (hereafter "land use"), taking account of uncertainties in other terms in the global carbon budget. We find that the atmospheric constraint favors land use CO flux estimates with lower decadal variability and can identify potentially erroneous features, such as emission peaks around 1960 and after 2000, in some published estimates. Furthermore, we resolve an offset in the global carbon budget that is most plausibly attributed to the land use flux. This correction shifts the mean land use flux since 1900 across 20 published estimates down by 0.35 PgC year to 1.04 ± 0.57 PgC year , which is within the range but at the low end of these estimates. We show that the atmospheric CO record can provide insights into the time history of the land use flux that may reduce uncertainty in this term and improve current understanding and projections of the global carbon cycle.

Keywords

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MeSH Term

Carbon Dioxide
Ecosystem
Carbon Cycle
Carbon
Uncertainty

Chemicals

Carbon Dioxide
Carbon

Word Cloud

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