Constraining extreme precipitation projections using past precipitation variability.

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Wenxia Zhang, Kalli Furtado, Tianjun Zhou, Peili Wu, Xiaolong Chen

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Wenxia Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China. ORCID
Kalli Furtado: Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK. ORCID
Tianjun Zhou: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China. zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn. ORCID
Peili Wu: Met Office, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK. ORCID
Xiaolong Chen: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China. ORCID

PMID: 36329032 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34006-0

Projected changes of future precipitation extremes exhibit substantial uncertainties among climate models, posing grand challenges to climate actions and adaptation planning. Practical methods for narrowing the projection uncertainty remain elusive. Here, using large model ensembles, we show that the uncertainty in projections of future extratropical extreme precipitation is significantly correlated with the model representations of present-day precipitation variability. Models with weaker present-day precipitation variability tend to project larger increases in extreme precipitation occurrences under a given global warming increment. This relationship can be explained statistically using idealized distributions for precipitation. This emergent relationship provides a powerful constraint on future projections of extreme precipitation from observed present-day precipitation variability, which reduces projection uncertainty by 20-40% over extratropical regions. Because of the widespread impacts of extreme precipitation, this has not only provided useful insights into understanding uncertainties in current model projections, but is also expected to bring potential socio-economic benefits in climate change adaptation planning.

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41905064/National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)
41988101/National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China)

Journal Article

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