Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19.

S A Trigger, A M Ignatov
Author Information
  1. S A Trigger: Joint Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences, 13/19, Izhorskaia Str., Moscow, 125412 Russia. ORCID
  2. A M Ignatov: Prokhorov General Physics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 38 Vavilova St., Moscow, 119991 Russia.

Abstract

Abstract: The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement.
Graphic abstract:

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Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0strainsmodelvirusepidemicspreadtwopopulationdeltaomicroninfectioncanreplacementAbstract:recentlydevelopedclosedgeneralizedsituationtypicalcouplehighprobabilitysoonenoughrecoveringconsideredkindcombinationSIRSISmodelscasecompetitiondifferentcontagiousnessobtainedequationsresultsdirectlyimplementedpracticalcalculationsSARS-CoV-2comparisonestimatedtimecorrespondingstatisticsshowsreasonableagreementGraphicabstract:Strain-streamapplicationCOVID-19

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