Quantifying Social Interventions for Combating COVID-19 via a Symmetry-Based Model.

Lei Zhang, Guang-Hui She, Yu-Rong She, Rong Li, Zhen-Su She
Author Information
  1. Lei Zhang: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. ORCID
  2. Guang-Hui She: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
  3. Yu-Rong She: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
  4. Rong Li: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
  5. Zhen-Su She: Institute of Health Systems Engineering, College of Engineering, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed new features in terms of substantial changes in rates of infection, cure, and death as a result of social interventions, which significantly challenges traditional SEIR-type models. In this paper we developed a symmetry-based model for quantifying social interventions for combating COVID-19. We found that three key order parameters, separating degree (S) for susceptible populations, healing degree (H) for mild cases, and rescuing degree (R) for severe cases, all display logistic dynamics, establishing a novel dynamic model named . Furthermore, we discovered two evolutionary patterns of healing degree with a universal power law in 23 areas in the first wave. Remarkably, the model yielded a quantitative evaluation of the dynamic back-to-zero policy in the third wave in Beijing using 12 datasets of different sizes. In conclusion, the model constitutes a rational basis by which we can understand this complex epidemic and policymakers can carry out sustainable anti-epidemic measures to minimize its impact.

Keywords

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MeSH Term

Humans
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Pandemics
Beijing
Social Work

Word Cloud

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