Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics.
Eyal Goldstein, Joseph J Erinjery, Gerardo Martin, Anuradhani Kasturiratne, Dileepa Senajith Ediriweera, Ruchira Somaweera, Hithanadura Janaka de Silva, Peter Diggle, David G Lalloo, Kris A Murray, Takuya Iwamura
Author Information
Eyal Goldstein: School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Joseph J Erinjery: School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Gerardo Martin: Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores unidad Mérida, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Yucatán, México.
Anuradhani Kasturiratne: Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya, Kelaniya, Sri Lanka.
Dileepa Senajith Ediriweera: Health Data Science Unit, Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya, Ragama, Sri Lanka.
Ruchira Somaweera: School of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia.
Hithanadura Janaka de Silva: Deparment of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Kelaniya, Ragama, Sri Lanka.
Peter Diggle: CHICAS, Lancaster University Medical School, Lancaster, UK.
David G Lalloo: Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Kris A Murray: Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, MRC Unit the Gambia at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Fajara, The Gambia.
Takuya Iwamura: School of Zoology, Department of Life Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.
