Angela R Wateska, Mary Patricia Nowalk, Chyongchiou J Lin, Lee H Harrison, William Schaffner, Richard K Zimmerman, Kenneth J Smith
INTRODUCTION: CDC pneumococcal vaccination recommendations for older adults now include either 15- or 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV15/PCV20). However, an in-development 21-valent vaccine (PCV21), formulated based on adult pneumococcal disease epidemiology, could substantially increase coverage of disease-causing pneumococcal serotypes, particularly in Black older adults, who are at greater risk. The potential public health impact and cost-effectiveness of PCV21 compared to currently recommended vaccines in older adults is unclear.
METHODS: A Markov decision model compared current pneumococcal vaccination recommendations to PCV21 use in Black and non-Black 65-year-old cohorts. CDC Active Bacterial Core surveillance data informed population and serotype-specific pneumococcal disease risk. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using Delphi panel estimates and clinical trial data, with variation in sensitivity analyses. Potential indirect effects on adult disease from PCV15 childhood vaccination were examined. All model parameters were varied individually and collectively in sensitivity analyses. Scenarios with decreased PCV21 effectiveness and potential COVID-19 pandemic effects were also examined.
RESULTS: In the Black cohort, the PCV21 strategy cost $88,478 per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained without and $97,952/QALY with childhood PCV15 indirect effects. PCV21 in the non-Black cohort cost $127,436/QALY gained without and $141,358/QALY with childhood PCV15 effects. Current recommendation strategies were economically unfavorable, regardless of population or indirect childhood vaccination effects. Results favoring PCV21 use were robust in sensitivity analyses and alternative scenarios.
CONCLUSION: An in-development PCV21 vaccine would likely be economically and clinically favorable compared to currently recommended pneumococcal vaccines in older adults. While PCV21 was more favorable in Black cohort analyses, results for both Black and non-Black populations were economically reasonable, highlighting the potential importance of adult-specific pneumococcal vaccine formulations and, pending further investigation, potentially justifying a future general population recommendation for PCV21 use in older adults.
