Epidemic monitoring in real-time based on dynamic grid search and Monte Carlo numerical simulation algorithm.

Xin Chen, Huijun Ning, Liuwang Guo, Dongming Diao, Xinru Zhou, Xiaoliang Zhang
Author Information
  1. Xin Chen: College of Civil Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
  2. Huijun Ning: College of Civil Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
  3. Liuwang Guo: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
  4. Dongming Diao: College of Civil Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.
  5. Xinru Zhou: School of Information Management and Engineering, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China.
  6. Xiaoliang Zhang: College of Civil Architecture, Henan University of Science and Technology, Luoyang, China.

Abstract

Building upon the foundational principles of the grid search algorithm and Monte Carlo numerical simulation, this article introduces an innovative epidemic monitoring and prevention plan. The plan offers the capability to accurately identify the sources of infectious diseases and predict the final scale and duration of the epidemic. The proposed plan is implemented in schools and society, utilizing computer simulation analysis. Through this analysis, the plan enables precise localization of infection sources for various demographic groups, with an error rate of less than 3%. Additionally, the plan allows for the estimation of the epidemic cycle duration, which typically spans around 14 days. Notably, higher population density enhances fault tolerance and prediction accuracy, resulting in smaller errors and more reliable simulation outcomes. Overall, this study provides highly valuable theoretical guidance for effective epidemic prevention and control efforts.

Keywords

References

  1. Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2020 Oct;139:110072 [PMID: 32834616]
  2. Math Comput Simul. 2021 Jul;185:687-695 [PMID: 33612959]
  3. J Hosp Infect. 2020 Oct 24;: [PMID: 34756867]

Word Cloud

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