The Rise and Fall of Omicron BA.1 Variant as Seen in Wastewater Supports Epidemiological Model Predictions.
Michal Liddor Naim, Yu Fu, Marilou Shagan, Itay Bar-Or, Robert Marks, Qun Sun, Rony Granek, Ariel Kushmaro
Author Information
Michal Liddor Naim: Avram and Stella Goldstein-Goren Department of Biotechnology Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel.
Yu Fu: Avram and Stella Goldstein-Goren Department of Biotechnology Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel.
Marilou Shagan: Avram and Stella Goldstein-Goren Department of Biotechnology Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel.
Itay Bar-Or: Central Virology Laboratory, Public Health Services, Ministry of Health, Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Ramat Gan 5262000, Israel.
Robert Marks: Avram and Stella Goldstein-Goren Department of Biotechnology Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel. ORCID
Qun Sun: Key Laboratory of Bio-Resources and Eco-Environment of the Ministry of Education, College of Life Sciences, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, China.
Rony Granek: Avram and Stella Goldstein-Goren Department of Biotechnology Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel. ORCID
Ariel Kushmaro: Avram and Stella Goldstein-Goren Department of Biotechnology Engineering, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Beer-Sheva 84105, Israel. ORCID
The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has inflicted significant mortality and morbidity worldwide. Continuous virus mutations have led to the emergence of new variants. The Omicron BA.1 sub-lineage prevailed as the dominant variant globally at the beginning of 2022 but was subsequently replaced by BA.2 in numerous countries. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) offers an efficient tool for capturing viral shedding from infected individuals, enabling early detection of potential pandemic outbreaks without relying solely on community cooperation and clinical testing resources. This study integrated RT-qPCR assays for detecting general SARS-CoV-2 and its variants levels in wastewater into a modified triple susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model. The emergence of the Omicron BA.1 variant was observed, replacing the presence of its predecessor, the Delta variant. Comparative analysis between the wastewater data and the modified SIRS model effectively described the BA.1 and subsequent BA.2 waves, with the decline of the Delta variant aligning with its diminished presence below the detection threshold in wastewater. This study demonstrates the potential of WBE as a valuable tool for future pandemics. Furthermore, by analyzing the sensitivity of different variants to model parameters, we are able to deduce real-life values of cross-variant immunity probabilities, emphasizing the asymmetry in their strength.
