Estimation of the Time-Varying Effective Reproductive Number of COVID-19 Based on Multivariate Time Series of Severe Health Outcomes.
Benjamin R Young, Faith Ho, Yun Lin, Eric H Y Lau, Benjamin J Cowling, Peng Wu, Tim K Tsang
Author Information
Benjamin R Young: World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong.
Faith Ho: World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong.
Yun Lin: World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong.
Eric H Y Lau: World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong.
Benjamin J Cowling: World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong.
Peng Wu: World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong. ORCID
Tim K Tsang: World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong.
The time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt at time t) measures the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and is conventionally based on daily case counts, which may suffer from time-varying ascertainment. We analyzed Rt estimates from case counts and severe COVID-19 (intensive care unit admissions, severe or critical cases, and mortality) across 2022 in Hong Kong's fifth and sixth waves of infection. Within the fifth wave, the severe disease-based Rt (3.5) was significantly higher than the case-based Rt (2.4) but not in the sixth wave. During periods with fluctuating underreporting, data based on severe diseases may provide more reliable Rt estimates.
