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Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
Jun, 2024;38 (3): e14204.

Prioritizing conservation efforts based on future habitat availability and accessibility under climate change.

Jie Liang, Wanting Wang, Qing Cai, Xin Li, Ziqian Zhu, Yeqing Zhai, Xiaodong Li, Xiang Gao, Yuru Yi
Author Information
  1. Jie Liang: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China. ORCID
  2. Wanting Wang: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China.
  3. Qing Cai: Hunan Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Changsha, P.R. China.
  4. Xin Li: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China.
  5. Ziqian Zhu: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China.
  6. Yeqing Zhai: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China.
  7. Xiaodong Li: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China.
  8. Xiang Gao: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China.
  9. Yuru Yi: College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China.
PMID: 37855159 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14204

Abstract

The potential for species to shift their ranges to avoid extinction is contingent on the future availability and accessibility of habitats with analogous climates. To develop conservation strategies, many previous researchers used a single method that considered individual factors; a few combined 2 factors. Primarily, these studies focused on identifying climate refugia or climatically connected and spatially fixed areas, ignoring the range shifting process of animals. We quantified future habitat availability (based on species occurrence, climate data, land cover, and elevation) and accessibility (based on climate velocity) under climate change (4 scenarios) of migratory birds across the Yangtze River basin (YRB). Then, we assessed species' range-shift potential and identified conservation priority areas for migratory birds in the 2050s with a network analysis. Our results suggested that medium (i.e., 5-10 km/year) and high (i.e., ≥ 10 km/year) climate velocity would threaten 18.65% and 8.37% of stable habitat, respectively. Even with low (i.e., 0-5 km/year) climate velocity, 50.15% of climate-velocity-identified destinations were less available than their source habitats. Based on our integration of habitat availability and accessibility, we identified a few areas of critical importance for conservation, mainly in Sichuan and the middle to lower reaches of the YRB. Overall, we identified the differences between habitat availability and accessibility in capturing biological responses to climate change. More importantly, we accounted for the dynamic process of species' range shifts, which must be considered to identify conservation priority areas. Our method informs forecasting of climate-driven distribution shifts and conservation priorities.

Keywords

adaptación al cambio climático análisis de redes climate change adaptation climate velocity conectividad connectivity habitat suitability idoneidad del hábitat network analysis velocidad del clima 气候速度 生境适宜性 网络分析 连通性 适应气候变化

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Grants

  1. 51979101/National Natural Science Foundation of China
  2. 51679082/National Natural Science Foundation of China
  3. 2023RC1041/Science and Technology Innovation Program of Hunan Province

MeSH Term

Conservation of Natural Resources
Climate Change
Animals
Ecosystem
China
Birds
Animal Migration
Animal Distribution
Journal Article
Article has an altmetric score of 12

Word Cloud

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