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Ecology
Jan, 2024;105 (1): e4190.

Extreme precipitation promotes invasion in managed grasslands.

Hugh Ratcliffe, Amy Kendig, Sara Vacek, Daren Carlson, Marissa Ahlering, Laura E Dee
Author Information
  1. Hugh Ratcliffe: Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA. ORCID
  2. Amy Kendig: Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA. ORCID
  3. Sara Vacek: US Fish and Wildlife Service, Morris, Minnesota, USA.
  4. Daren Carlson: Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
  5. Marissa Ahlering: The Nature Conservancy, Moorhead, Minnesota, USA. ORCID
  6. Laura E Dee: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA. ORCID
PMID: 37877294 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.4190

Abstract

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events like drought and flooding, which threaten to amplify other global change drivers such as species invasion. We investigate the effect of wet and dry extreme precipitation regimes on invasive species' abundances in northern tallgrass prairies. Because soil moisture is a key determinant of prairie composition, theory and evidence suggest drought conditions will hinder invasion, whereas wetter conditions will enhance invasion. To test this hypothesis, we explored the effect of precipitation on invasive plant species abundance from 2010 to 2019 in 25 managed prairies using observations from 267 transects comprising 6675 plots throughout western Minnesota, USA. We estimated how increases in the number of extremely wet or dry months in a year altered overall invasive species abundance and the abundance of the highly invasive grasses Poa pratensis and Bromus inermis. We found that a greater occurrence of abnormally wet months increased invasive species abundance but found mixed evidence that abnormally dry conditions hindered invasion. Further, more moderately wet and dry months reduced native grass abundance. Together, these results suggest that more frequent extremely wet months may intensify invasive dominance and that dry months may not counterbalance these trends. Given the considerable uncertainty still surrounding the interactive effects of climate change and invasion on native plant communities, this research represents an important step toward quantifying the complex influence of precipitation extremes on invasion dynamics in managed ecosystems of critical conservation concern.

Keywords

adaptive management causal inference climate change extreme precipitation invasion windows invasive species

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MeSH Term

Ecosystem
Grassland
Poaceae
Plants
Bromus
Introduced Species
Journal Article
Article has an altmetric score of 12

Word Cloud

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