Evaluation of phase-adjusted interventions for COVID-19 using an improved SEIR model.

Honglin Jiang, Zhouhong Gu, Haitong Liu, Junhui Huang, Zhengzhong Wang, Ying Xiong, Yixin Tong, Jiangfan Yin, Feng Jiang, Yue Chen, Qingwu Jiang, Yibiao Zhou
Author Information
  1. Honglin Jiang: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China. ORCID
  2. Zhouhong Gu: Fudan University School of Computer Science and Technology, Shanghai, China.
  3. Haitong Liu: School of Public Health, Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China.
  4. Junhui Huang: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China.
  5. Zhengzhong Wang: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China.
  6. Ying Xiong: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China.
  7. Yixin Tong: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China.
  8. Jiangfan Yin: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China.
  9. Feng Jiang: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China.
  10. Yue Chen: School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
  11. Qingwu Jiang: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China.
  12. Yibiao Zhou: Fudan University School of Public Health, Shanghai, China.

Abstract

A local COVID-19 outbreak with two community clusters occurred in a large industrial city, Shaoxing, China, in December 2021 after serial interventions were imposed. We aimed to understand the reason by analysing the characteristics of the outbreak and evaluating the effects of phase-adjusted interventions. Publicly available data from 7 December 2021 to 25 January 2022 were collected to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of this outbreak. The incubation period was estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. A well-fitted extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to simulate the impact of different interventions under various combination of scenarios. There were 387 SARS-CoV-2-infected cases identified, and 8.3% of them were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic cases. The estimated incubation period was 5.4 (95% CI 5.2-5.7) days for all patients. Strengthened measures of comprehensive quarantine based on tracing led to less infections and a shorter duration of epidemic. With a same period of incubation, comprehensive quarantine was more effective in containing the transmission than other interventions. Our findings reveal an important role of tracing and comprehensive quarantine in blocking community spread when a cluster occurred. Regions with tense resources can adopt home quarantine as a relatively affordable and low-impact intervention measure compared with centralized quarantine.

Keywords

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MeSH Term

Humans
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Quarantine
Disease Outbreaks
Epidemics
China

Word Cloud

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