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Scientific reports
Dec 05, 2023;13 (1): 21452.

Real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from behavioral data.

Eszter Bokányi, Zsolt Vizi, Júlia Koltai, Gergely Röst, Márton Karsai
Author Information
  1. Eszter Bokányi: Institute of Logic, Language and Computation, University of Amsterdam, 1090GE, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
  2. Zsolt Vizi: National Laboratory for Health Security, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary.
  3. Júlia Koltai: National Laboratory for Health Security, Centre for Social Sciences, Budapest, 1097, Hungary.
  4. Gergely Röst: National Laboratory for Health Security, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary.
  5. Márton Karsai: Department of Network and Data Science, Central European University, 1100, Vienna, Austria. karsaim@ceu.edu.
PMID: 38052841 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-46418-z

Abstract

Monitoring the effective reproduction number [Formula: see text] of a rapidly unfolding pandemic in real-time is key to successful mitigation and prevention strategies. However, existing methods based on case numbers, hospital admissions or fatalities suffer from multiple measurement biases and temporal lags due to high test positivity rates or delays in symptom development or administrative reporting. Alternative methods such as web search and social media tracking are less directly indicating epidemic prevalence over time. We instead record age-stratified anonymous contact matrices at a daily resolution using a longitudinal online-offline survey in Hungary during the first two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. This approach is innovative, cheap, and provides information in near real-time for estimating [Formula: see text] at a daily resolution. Moreover, it allows to complement traditional surveillance systems by signaling periods when official monitoring infrastructures are unreliable due to observational biases.

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Grants

  1. 2020-2.1.1-ED-2020-00003/Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal
  2. 2020-2.1.1-ED-2020-00003/Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal
  3. 2020-2.1.1-ED-2020-00003/Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal
  4. 2020-2.1.1-ED-2020-00003/Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal
  5. 2020-2.1.1-ED-2020-00003/Nemzeti Kutatási Fejlesztési és Innovációs Hivatal
  6. TKP2021-NVA-09/Innovációs és Technológiai Minisztérium
  7. TKP2021-NVA-09/Innovációs és Technológiai Minisztérium
  8. RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006/National Laboratory for Health Security
  9. RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006/National Laboratory for Health Security
  10. RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006/National Laboratory for Health Security
  11. RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00006/National Laboratory for Health Security
  12. Premium Postdoctoral Grant/Magyar Tudományos Akadémia
  13. ANR-19-CE46-0008/DataRedux
  14. H2020-871042/SoBigData

MeSH Term

Humans
COVID-19
Pandemics
Basic Reproduction Number
Hospitalization
Hungary
Journal Article
Article has an altmetric score of 4

Word Cloud

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