A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone track, intensity, and rainfall dataset.

Wenwei Xu, Karthik Balaguru, David R Judi, Julian Rice, L Ruby Leung, Serena Lipari
Author Information
  1. Wenwei Xu: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, 99354, USA. wenwei.xu@pnnl.gov. ORCID
  2. Karthik Balaguru: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, 99354, USA.
  3. David R Judi: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, 99354, USA.
  4. Julian Rice: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, 99354, USA.
  5. L Ruby Leung: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, 99354, USA. ORCID
  6. Serena Lipari: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, 99354, USA.

Abstract

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 40,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with the observed spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale TC statistics. Specifically along the coast, spatial variations in TC crossing probability and extreme winds upon landfall are well-reproduced by RAFT with R-squared values of 0.81 and 0.73, respectively. In summary, the synthetic TC database constructed with RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for the robust assessment of North Atlantic TC wind and rainfall risks.

References

  1. Nature. 2018 Nov;563(7731):339-346 [PMID: 30429550]
  2. Sci Data. 2020 Feb 6;7(1):40 [PMID: 32029746]
  3. Sci Adv. 2023 Apr 7;9(14):eadf0259 [PMID: 37027466]
  4. Sci Data. 2024 Jan 25;11(1):130 [PMID: 38272960]

Word Cloud

Created with Highcharts 10.0.0TCsyntheticRAFTdatabasetracksTropicalCyclonesTCsriskobservedusingreasonablespatial0NorthAtlanticrainfallcausesignificantsocio-economicdamagesUSCaribbeancoastalregionsannuallymakingimportantunderstandlocal-to-regionalscalesHowevershortlengthrecordsubstantialcomputationalexpenseassociatedhigh-resolutionclimatemodelsmakedifficultassesseitherapproachovercomechallengesdevelopedRiskAnalysisFrameworkincludes40000along-trackintensitiesstorm-inducedprecipitationgeneratedagreementdistributionbasin-scalestatisticsSpecificallyalongcoastvariationscrossingprobabilityextremewindsuponlandfallwell-reproducedR-squaredvalues8173respectivelysummaryconstructedprovidespathwayrobustassessmentwindriskstropicalcyclonetrackintensitydataset

Similar Articles

Cited By