Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision-Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an Urban Regeneration Process.
Virginia R Coletta, Alessandro Pagano, Irene Pluchinotta, Nici Zimmermann, Michael Davies, Adrian Butler, Umberto Fratino, Raffaele Giordano
Author Information
Virginia R Coletta: Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Construction and Chemistry Polytechnic University of Bari Bari Italy. ORCID
Alessandro Pagano: Water Research Institute-National Research Council Bari Italy. ORCID
Irene Pluchinotta: The Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering University College London London UK. ORCID
Nici Zimmermann: The Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering University College London London UK. ORCID
Michael Davies: The Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment Institute for Environmental Design and Engineering University College London London UK. ORCID
Adrian Butler: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Imperial College London London UK. ORCID
Umberto Fratino: Department of Civil, Environmental, Land, Construction and Chemistry Polytechnic University of Bari Bari Italy. ORCID
Raffaele Giordano: Water Research Institute-National Research Council Bari Italy. ORCID
Several modeling tools commonly used for supporting flood risk assessment and management are highly effective in representing physical phenomena, but provide a rather limited understanding of the multiple implications that flood risk and flood risk reduction measures have on highly complex systems such as urban areas. In fact, most of the available modeling tools do not fully account for this complexity-and related uncertainty-which heavily affects the interconnections between urban systems evolution and flood risk, ultimately resulting in an ineffective flood risk management. The present research proposes an innovative methodological framework to support decision-makers involved in an urban regeneration process at a planning/strategic level, accounting for the multi-dimensional implications of flood risk and of different flood risk management strategies. The adopted approach is based on the use of System Thinking principles and participatory System Dynamics modeling techniques, and pursues an integration between scientific and stakeholder knowledge. Reference is made to one of the case studies of the CUSSH and CAMELLIA projects, namely Thamesmead (London), a formerly inhospitable marshland currently undergoing a process of urban regeneration, and perceived as being increasingly vulnerable to flooding. It represents an interesting opportunity for building a replicable modeling approach to integrate urban development dynamics with flood risk, ultimately supporting policy and decision-makers in identifying mitigation/prevention measures and understanding how they could help achieve multi-dimensional benefits (e.g., environmental, social and economic).
