Predicting onset risk of COVID-19 symptom to support healthy travel route planning in the new normal of long-term coexistence with SARS-CoV-2.

Chengzhuo Tong, Wenzhong Shi, Anshu Zhang, Zhicheng Shi
Author Information
  1. Chengzhuo Tong: Otto Poon Charitable Foundation Smart Cities Research Institute and Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  2. Wenzhong Shi: Otto Poon Charitable Foundation Smart Cities Research Institute and Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China. ORCID
  3. Anshu Zhang: Otto Poon Charitable Foundation Smart Cities Research Institute and Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
  4. Zhicheng Shi: Research Institute for Smart Cities, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shenzhen University, China.

Abstract

Due to the increased outdoor transmission risk of new SARS-COV-2 variants, the health of urban residents in daily travel is being threatened. In the new normal of long-term coexistence with SARS-CoV-2, how to avoid being infected by SARS-CoV-2 in daily travel has become a key issue. Hence, a spatiotemporal solution has been proposed to assist healthy travel route planning. Firstly, an enhanced urban-community-scale geographic model was proposed to predict daily COVID-19 symptom onset risk by incorporating the real-time effective reproduction numbers, and daily population variation of fully vaccinated. On-road onset risk predictions in the next following days were then extracted for searching healthy routes with the least onset risk values. The healthy route planning was further implemented in a mobile application. Hong Kong, one of the representative highly populated cities, has been chosen as an example to apply the spatiotemporal solution. The application results in the four epidemic waves of Hong Kong show that based on the high accurate prediction of COVID-19 symptom onset risk, the healthy route planning could reduce people's exposure to the COVID-19 symptoms onset risk. To sum, the proposed solution can be applied to support the healthy travel of residents in more cities in the new normalcy.

Keywords

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