OpenLB
Open Library of Bioscience
Advanced Search
Frontiers in public health
2024;12 1381328.

Mathematical models and analysis tools for risk assessment of unnatural epidemics: a scoping review.

Ji Li, Yue Li, Zihan Mei, Zhengkun Liu, Gaofeng Zou, Chunxia Cao
Author Information
  1. Ji Li: Institute of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
  2. Yue Li: College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
  3. Zihan Mei: Institute of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
  4. Zhengkun Liu: Institute of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
  5. Gaofeng Zou: College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
  6. Chunxia Cao: Institute of Disaster and Emergency Medicine, Tianjin University, Tianjin, China.
PMID: 38799686 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1381328

Abstract

Predicting, issuing early warnings, and assessing risks associated with unnatural epidemics (UEs) present significant challenges. These tasks also represent key areas of focus within the field of prevention and control research for UEs. A scoping review was conducted using databases such as PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase, from inception to 31 December 2023. Sixty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. Two types of models (data-driven and mechanistic-based models) and a class of analysis tools for risk assessment of UEs were identified. The validation part of models involved calibration, improvement, and comparison. Three surveillance systems (event-based, indicator-based, and hybrid) were reported for monitoring UEs. In the current study, mathematical models and analysis tools suggest a distinction between natural epidemics and UEs in selecting model parameters and warning thresholds. Future research should consider combining a mechanistic-based model with a data-driven model and learning to pursue time-varying, high-precision risk assessment capabilities.

Keywords

analysis tools machine learning mathematical models risk assessment unnatural epidemics

References

  1. Biosecur Bioterror. 2009 Dec;7(4):443-51 [PMID: 20028253]
  2. Risk Anal. 2020 May;40(5):915-925 [PMID: 32170774]
  3. Euro Surveill. 2006;11(12):220-4 [PMID: 17370968]
  4. Epidemics. 2010 Dec;2(4):189-94 [PMID: 21352789]
  5. Math Biosci Eng. 2022 Jan;19(2):2043-2055 [PMID: 35135241]
  6. Health Secur. 2016 May-Jun;14(3):152-60 [PMID: 27314655]
  7. Emerg Themes Epidemiol. 2012 Jun 18;9(1):4 [PMID: 22709988]
  8. Risk Anal. 2019 Jul;39(7):1465-1475 [PMID: 30582887]
  9. Int J Health Plann Manage. 2017 Jul;32(3):329-338 [PMID: 28632912]
  10. Stat Med. 2007 Dec 20;26(29):5225-52 [PMID: 17948918]
  11. Stat Med. 2007 Apr 15;26(8):1824-33 [PMID: 17216592]
  12. Pan Afr Med J. 2022 May 24;42:63 [PMID: 35949466]
  13. Risk Anal. 2022 Sep 13;: [PMID: 36100578]
  14. MMWR Suppl. 2005 Aug 26;54:109-15 [PMID: 16177701]
  15. Pharmacoeconomics. 2016 Sep;34(9):829-31 [PMID: 27225253]
  16. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2003 Feb 18;100(4):1961-5 [PMID: 12574522]
  17. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2005 Mar 02;5:4 [PMID: 15743535]
  18. Mil Med. 2018 Jan 1;183(1-2):e59-e65 [PMID: 29401327]
  19. MMWR Suppl. 2005 Aug 26;54:101-8 [PMID: 16177700]
  20. Biosecur Bioterror. 2014 Nov-Dec;12(6):325-36 [PMID: 25470464]
  21. Am J Epidemiol. 2004 Feb 1;159(3):217-24 [PMID: 14742279]
  22. Nurse Educ Today. 2023 Mar;122:105727 [PMID: 36706731]
  23. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2016 Mar;24(1):9-15 [PMID: 27070964]
  24. J Urban Health. 2003 Jun;80(2 Suppl 1):i43-9 [PMID: 12791778]
  25. Biosecur Bioterror. 2013 Sep;11 Suppl 1:S3-16 [PMID: 23971819]
  26. Emerg Infect Dis. 2002 Feb;8(2):225-30 [PMID: 11897082]
  27. Nonlinear Dyn. 2020;101(3):1527-1543 [PMID: 32836818]
  28. Emerg Infect Dis. 2001 Nov-Dec;7(6):959-69 [PMID: 11747722]
  29. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2021 Jun 18;7(6):e27976 [PMID: 34142975]
  30. Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Feb;134(1):13-20 [PMID: 16409646]
  31. Risk Anal. 2018 Aug;38(8):1685-1700 [PMID: 29694682]
  32. Public Health. 2016 May;134:72-85 [PMID: 26880489]
  33. AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2009 Nov 14;2009:276-80 [PMID: 20351864]
  34. Emerg Infect Dis. 2005 Sep;11(9):1394-8 [PMID: 16229768]
  35. Infect Dis Clin North Am. 2006 Jun;20(2):179-211, vii [PMID: 16762735]
  36. Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Jul;136(7):876-85 [PMID: 17678556]
  37. MMWR Suppl. 2004 Sep 24;53:74-8 [PMID: 15714633]
  38. Emerg Infect Dis. 2017 Jan;23(1):46-55 [PMID: 27983505]
  39. J Infect Public Health. 2009;2(2):55-61 [PMID: 20701862]
  40. Mil Med. 2015 Sep;180(9):943-9 [PMID: 26327545]
  41. Can J Public Health. 2006 Jan-Feb;97(1):42-4 [PMID: 16512327]
  42. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2003 Jan 23;3:2 [PMID: 12542838]
  43. Epidemiol Infect. 2007 Apr;135(3):353-71 [PMID: 16893485]
  44. MMWR Suppl. 2004 Sep 24;53:43-9 [PMID: 15714626]
  45. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2014 Jun;20(6):488-96 [PMID: 24890710]
  46. BMJ Glob Health. 2020 Jun;5(6): [PMID: 32513862]
  47. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2003 Nov-Dec;10(6):547-54 [PMID: 12925547]
  48. J Urban Health. 2003 Jun;80(2 Suppl 1):i66-75 [PMID: 12791781]
  49. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Jun;10(6):996-1002 [PMID: 15207048]
  50. J Infect Chemother. 2005 Apr;11(2):71-80 [PMID: 15856374]
  51. Isr Med Assoc J. 2007 Jan;9(1):3-7 [PMID: 17274346]
  52. J Biomed Inform. 2008 Apr;41(2):224-31 [PMID: 18194876]
  53. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2013 Nov;19(11):1006-13 [PMID: 23789639]
  54. Curr Epidemiol Rep. 2016;3(3):212-222 [PMID: 32226711]
  55. Ann Intern Med. 2018 Oct 2;169(7):467-473 [PMID: 30178033]
  56. Public Health. 2012 Jan;126(1):77-81 [PMID: 22136700]
  57. J Urban Health. 2003 Jun;80(2 Suppl 1):i32-42 [PMID: 12791777]
  58. Risk Anal. 2003 Dec;23(6):1135-45 [PMID: 14641889]
  59. AMIA Annu Symp Proc. 2003;:549-53 [PMID: 14728233]
  60. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2013 May 1;20(3):435-40 [PMID: 23037798]
  61. Animal. 2020 Aug;14(S2):s223-s237 [PMID: 32141423]
  62. Epidemiol Infect. 2004 Jan;132(1):19-25 [PMID: 14979585]
  63. Risk Anal. 2002 Dec;22(6):1153-63 [PMID: 12530785]
  64. PLoS Comput Biol. 2009 Jan;5(1):e1000356 [PMID: 19360099]
  65. AIHA J (Fairfax, Va). 2003 Jan-Feb;64(1):95-101 [PMID: 12570401]
  66. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2008 Jan-Feb;15(1):77-86 [PMID: 17947614]
  67. Intensive Care Med. 2020 Mar;46(3):383-400 [PMID: 31965266]
  68. Anal Sci. 2009 Jun;25(6):795-800 [PMID: 19531890]
  69. MMWR Suppl. 2004 Sep 24;53:50-2 [PMID: 15714628]
  70. Math Biosci Eng. 2013 Oct-Dec;10(5-6):1475-97 [PMID: 24245626]
  71. Prog Biophys Mol Biol. 2017 Oct;129:3-12 [PMID: 28089814]
  72. J Public Health Manag Pract. 2005 Jul-Aug;11(4):274-81 [PMID: 15958924]
  73. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004 Jul;10(7):1202-5 [PMID: 15324538]
  74. Open Med (Wars). 2021 Jun 28;16(1):955-963 [PMID: 34239984]
  75. J Am Med Inform Assoc. 2003 Sep-Oct;10(5):399-408 [PMID: 12807803]
  76. Public Health Rep. 2003 Mar-Apr;118(2):92-8 [PMID: 12690063]
  77. Environ Health Prev Med. 2010 Mar;15(2):84-93 [PMID: 19784718]
  78. Stat Med. 2011 Jan 30;30(2):101-26 [PMID: 20963771]
  79. MMWR Suppl. 2004 Sep 24;53:56-8 [PMID: 15714630]
  80. Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2022 Jun;41:100478 [PMID: 35691636]
  81. Proc AMIA Symp. 2002;:815-9 [PMID: 12463938]
  82. Environ Sci Technol. 2015 Jun 2;49(11):6701-11 [PMID: 25961107]
  83. Clin Microbiol Infect. 2002 Aug;8(8):510-21 [PMID: 12197873]
  84. Mil Med. 2023 Mar 20;188(3-4):531-540 [PMID: 35569934]
  85. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2010 May 07;10:25 [PMID: 20459679]

MeSH Term

Humans
Epidemics
Models, Theoretical
Risk Assessment
Journal Article Review

Word Cloud

Similar Articles

Cited By