Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Chikungunya Incidence in Brazil and the Impact of Social Vulnerability: A Population-Based and Ecological Study.
Thiago de Jesus Santos, Karina Concei����o Gomes Machado de Ara��jo, Marco Aur��lio de Oliveira G��es, Marcio Bezerra-Santos, Ca��que Jordan Nunes Ribeiro, Allan Dantas Dos Santos, Emerson Lucas Silva Camargo, Regina Claudia Silva Souza, Isabel Am��lia Costa Mendes, Alvaro Francisco Lopes de Sousa, Dami��o da Concei����o Ara��jo
Author Information
Thiago de Jesus Santos: Graduate Program in Nursing, Federal University of Sergipe, S��o Crist��v��o 49100-000, Brazil. ORCID
Karina Concei����o Gomes Machado de Ara��jo: Medical and Nursing Science Center, Federal University of Alagoas, Campus Arapiraca, Arapiraca 57309-005, Brazil.
Marco Aur��lio de Oliveira G��es: Graduate Program in Nursing, Federal University of Sergipe, S��o Crist��v��o 49100-000, Brazil. ORCID
Marcio Bezerra-Santos: Medical and Nursing Science Center, Federal University of Alagoas, Campus Arapiraca, Arapiraca 57309-005, Brazil.
Ca��que Jordan Nunes Ribeiro: Graduate Program in Nursing, Federal University of Sergipe, S��o Crist��v��o 49100-000, Brazil. ORCID
Allan Dantas Dos Santos: Graduate Program in Nursing, Federal University of Sergipe, S��o Crist��v��o 49100-000, Brazil. ORCID
Emerson Lucas Silva Camargo: Ribeirao Preto College of Nursing, Universidade de S��o Paulo, Ribeirao Preto 14040-902, Brazil. ORCID
Regina Claudia Silva Souza: Hospital S��rio-Liban��s, Faculdade S��rio-Liban��s, S��o Paulo 01308-050, Brazil.
Isabel Am��lia Costa Mendes: Ribeirao Preto College of Nursing, Universidade de S��o Paulo, Ribeirao Preto 14040-902, Brazil. ORCID
Alvaro Francisco Lopes de Sousa: Hospital S��rio-Liban��s, Faculdade S��rio-Liban��s, S��o Paulo 01308-050, Brazil. ORCID
Dami��o da Concei����o Ara��jo: Graduate Program in Nursing, Federal University of Sergipe, S��o Crist��v��o 49100-000, Brazil. ORCID
To assess the temporal and spatial dynamics of chikungunya incidence and its association with social vulnerability indicators in Brazil, an ecological and population-based study was conducted herein, with confirmed cases of chikungunya and based on clinical and clinical-epidemiological criteria from 2017 to 2023. Data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and social vulnerability indicators were extracted from the official platform of the United Nations Development Program and the Social Vulnerability Atlas. Temporal, spatial, and global spatial regression models were employed. The temporal trend showed that in 2017, the incidence increased by 1.9%, and this trend decreased from 2020 to 2021 (-0.93%). The spatial distribution showed heterogeneity and positive spatial autocorrelation (I: 0.71; < 0.001) in chikungunya cases in Brazil. Also, the high-risk areas for the disease were concentrated in the northeast and north regions. The social vulnerability indicators associated with the outcome were those related to income, education, and housing conditions. Our analyses demonstrate that chikungunya continues to be a serious health concern in Brazil, but specially in the northeast and north regions. Lastly, mapping risk areas can provide evidence for the development of public health strategies and disease control in endemic regions.
