Development and validation of a COVID-19 vaccination prediction model based on self-reporting results in Chinese older adults from September 2022 to November 2022: A nationwide cross-sectional study.
Dong Liu, Yushi Zhang, Rui Liang, Jieping Lei, Ke Huang, Yaoda Hu, Liwen Fang, Luzhao Feng, Guangliang Shan, Min Wang, Yuanyuan Ding, Qian Gao, Ting Yang
Author Information
Dong Liu: Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Yushi Zhang: Peking Union Medical College/Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China.
Rui Liang: National Center for Respiratory Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China.
Jieping Lei: Data and Project Management Unit, Institute of Clinical Medical Sciences, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China.
Ke Huang: National Center for Respiratory Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China.
Yaoda Hu: Institute of Basic Medical Sciences Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, School of Basic Medicine Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Liwen Fang: National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
Luzhao Feng: School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Guangliang Shan: Institute of Basic Medical Sciences Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, School of Basic Medicine Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Min Wang: Department of Rheumatology, Beijing Hospital, National Center of Gerontology, Institute of Geriatric Medicine, Clinical Immunology Center, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Yuanyuan Ding: The secretariat, Chinese Association of Geriatric Research, Beijing, China.
Qian Gao: National Center for Respiratory Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China.
Ting Yang: National Center for Respiratory Medicine, State Key Laboratory of Respiratory Health and Multimorbidity, National Clinical Research Center for Respiratory Diseases, Institute of Respiratory Medicine, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Center of Respiratory Medicine, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Beijing, China.
It was common to see that older adults were reluctant to be vaccinated for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China. There is a lack of practical prediction models to guide COVID-19 vaccination program. A nationwide, self-reported, cross-sectional survey was conducted from September 2022 to November 2022, including people aged 60���years or older. Stratified random sampling was used to divide the dataset into derivation, validation, and test datasets at a ratio of 6:2:2. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and multivariable logistic regression were used for variable screening and model construction. Discrimination and calibration were assessed primarily by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration curve. A total of 35057 samples (53.65% males and mean age of 69.64��������7.24���years) were finally selected, which constitutes 93.73% of the valid samples. From 33 potential predictors, 19 variables were screened and included in the multivariable logistic regression model. The mean AUC in the validation dataset was 0.802, with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 0.732, 0.718 and 0.729 respectively, which were similar to the parameters in the test dataset of 0.755, 0.715 and 0.720, respectively, and the mean AUC in the test dataset was 0.815. There were no significant differences between the model predicted values and the actual observed values for calibration in these groups. The prediction model based on self-reported characteristics of older adults was developed that could be useful for predicting the willingness for COVID-19 vaccines, as well as providing recommendations in improving vaccine acceptance.
