NPCC4: Tail risk, climate drivers of extreme heat, and new methods for extreme event projections.
Luis Ortiz, Christian Braneon, Radley Horton, Daniel Bader, Philip Orton, Vivien Gornitz, Bernice Rosenzweig, Timon McPhearson, Lauren Smalls-Mantey, Hadia Sheerazi, Franco A Montalto, Mobin Rahimi Golkhandan, Colin Evans, Arthur DeGaetano, Evan Mallen, Latonya Carter, Kathryn McConnell, Talea Mayo, Maya Buchanan
Author Information
Luis Ortiz: Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA. ORCID
Christian Braneon: CUNY Institute for Demographic Research (CIDR), City University of New York, New York City, New York, USA. ORCID
Radley Horton: Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York City, New York, USA.
Daniel Bader: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA.
Philip Orton: Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, New Jersey, USA.
Vivien Gornitz: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USA.
Bernice Rosenzweig: Department of Environmental Science, Sarah Lawrence College, Bronxville, New York, USA.
Timon McPhearson: Urban Systems Lab, The New School, New York City, New York, USA.
Lauren Smalls-Mantey: New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, New York City, New York, USA.
Hadia Sheerazi: Rocky Mountain Institute, New York City, New York, USA.
Franco A Montalto: Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Mobin Rahimi Golkhandan: Department of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Colin Evans: Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Arthur DeGaetano: Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Evan Mallen: Urban Climate Lab, School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Latonya Carter: Department of Geography and Geoinformation Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.
Kathryn McConnell: Department of Sociology, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, CA.
Talea Mayo: Department of Mathematics, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the "hot models" associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.
