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Nature medicine
Dec, 2024;30 (12): 3568-3577.

Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa.

David R M Smith, Joanne Turner, Patrick Fahr, Lauren A Attfield, Paul R Bessell, Christl A Donnelly, Rory Gibb, Kate E Jones, David W Redding, Danny Asogun, Oladele Oluwafemi Ayodeji, Benedict N Azuogu, William A Fischer, Kamji Jan, Adebola T Olayinka, David A Wohl, Andrew A Torkelson, Katelyn A Dinkel, Emily J Nixon, Koen B Pouwels, T Déirdre Hollingsworth
Author Information
  1. David R M Smith: Nuffield Department of Population Health, Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. david.smith@ndph.ox.ac.uk. ORCID
  2. Joanne Turner: Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK. ORCID
  3. Patrick Fahr: Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  4. Lauren A Attfield: Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK.
  5. Paul R Bessell: Independent consultant, Edinburgh, UK.
  6. Christl A Donnelly: Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK. ORCID
  7. Rory Gibb: Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK.
  8. Kate E Jones: Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, London, UK.
  9. David W Redding: Science Department, The Natural History Museum, London, UK.
  10. Danny Asogun: Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital, Irrua, Nigeria.
  11. Oladele Oluwafemi Ayodeji: Federal Medical Centre, Owo, Nigeria.
  12. Benedict N Azuogu: Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital Abakaliki, Abakaliki, Nigeria.
  13. William A Fischer: Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA. ORCID
  14. Kamji Jan: Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, Nigeria.
  15. Adebola T Olayinka: Nigeria Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Abuja, Nigeria.
  16. David A Wohl: Institute for Global Health and Infectious Diseases, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill School of Medicine, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
  17. Andrew A Torkelson: Linksbridge SPC, Seattle, WA, USA. ORCID
  18. Katelyn A Dinkel: Linksbridge SPC, Seattle, WA, USA. ORCID
  19. Emily J Nixon: Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
  20. Koen B Pouwels: Nuffield Department of Population Health, Health Economics Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. ORCID
  21. T Déirdre Hollingsworth: Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
PMID: 39198710 DOI: 10.1038/s41591-024-03232-y

Abstract

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of 'Lassa-X'-a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant-and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7 million (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1-3.4 million) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over 10 years in 2.0 million (793,800-3.9 million) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified 'endemic' districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1 million ($8.2-$39.0 million) in lost DALY value and $128.2 million ($67.2-$231.9 million) in societal costs (2021 international dollars ($)). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2 million DALYs within 2 years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.

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Grants

  1. MRF_MRF-160-0017-ELP-POUW-C0909/MRF
  2. R01 AI135105/NIAID NIH HHS
  3. MR/R02491X/1/Medical Research Council
  4. /Wellcome Trust
  5. MR/R02491X/2/Medical Research Council

MeSH Term

Lassa Fever
Humans
Africa, Western
Lassa virus
Vaccination
Immunization Programs
Female
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Adult
Male
Disability-Adjusted Life Years
Adolescent
Child
Middle Aged
Pandemics
Viral Vaccines
Young Adult

Chemicals

Viral Vaccines
Journal Article
Article has an altmetric score of 58

Word Cloud

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